Tyler Glasnow Is Ready To Dominate The Postseason

Tyler Glasnow is one of those “what-if” pitchers. You watch him throw his devastating curveball—the one that makes hitters look like they had too many beers at the company softball game—and say to yourself, “What if? What if Tyler Glasnow hadn’t suffered through so many injuries? What if he pitched one full season without a strain or a tear or any cramping?”

The 6’8” right hander from southern California missed the first two months of the season with an oblique strain. That injury came on the heels of Glasnow’s rehab from Tommy John surgery performed in August 2021. Glasnow had first tried to rehab the torn UCL in his right elbow, but when that didn’t work, he went under the knife. He also missed time in 2019—his first full season with the Rays—with a forearm strain.

The only full season Glasnow’s pitched in his career was the COVID-shortened, 60-game season in 2020. He went 5-1 in 11 starts that year, with a 38.2% strikeout rate. When batters did make contact, they hit .199 off him. Glasnow led the Rays to wins in the American League Wild Card Series over the Blue Jays and the AL Division Series over the Yankees. But Clayton Kershaw out-dueled Glasnow twice in the World Series, to give the Dodgers their first championship* since 1988.

I’m expecting big things out of Glasnow this postseason. Dare I say, I’m predicting big things for Glasnow. And with the Rays’ power offense, I see the Rays as the favorite American League team to play in the World Series. I know that FanGraphs disagrees. FG gives the Rays an 8.1% chance to win the World Series, compared to 15.9% for the Astros. (In the National League, the Braves dominate the odds—as they should—with a 29.3% chance to win it all. The Dodgers are at 12.1%).

Glasnow is peaking at just the right time.

Glasnow primarily throws three pitches: a four-seam fastball, a slider, and that devastating curve. He throws his fastball, on average, at 96.3 mph; his slider, on average, at 90 mph; and his curveball, on average at 83.8 mph.

Oh, but the movement on his curveball.

Watch this pitch sequence from the Rays’ September 6th game at home against the Red Sox. Glasnow struck out 14 Sox in just 6 innings in that game. Here he makes Trevor Story look feeble against a 96.8 mph fastball, followed by a 91.1 mph slider up in the zone, and finished off with a beautiful 83.9 mph curveball.

Glasnow has a 72% strikeout rate on his curveball—that’s the 3rd highest strikeout rate on any pitch by any pitcher in MLB this season, according to Statcast. When batters do make contact with the curve, they’re hitting .098 on the pitch. That’s really, really good.

What makes his curveball so effective is that it comes not just as an alternative to his fastball, but mixed in with the hard slider, which Glasnow added to his pitch options in 2021. That keeps hitters off balance.

He also flummoxes hitters with a delivery that looks consistent across pitches. And with his 6’8” frame and long wing span, Glasnow releases the ball closer to the most pitchers, giving hitters even less time to try to figure out what pitch is coming.

As David Adler explained last month on MLB.com, Glasnow’s slider drops in 20 inches below his fastball, and the curveball drops in 20 inches below the slider—even though all three start from the same release point.

Click on this Pitching Ninja tweet that shows an overlay of Glasnow’s fastball and curveball. And this one. And this one.

Glasnow has been one of the best pitchers in the game since the All-Star break. In 10 starts (64 innings pitched), he’s 7-2 with a 2.53 ERA. He was the American League Pitcher of the Month in July.

The Rays and Rays fans are hoping he becomes of the Pitcher of the Month in October and leads to the team back to the World Series.