Tough Times For Baseball In The Show Me State

The St. Louis Browns began playing baseball in the American Association in 1882. In 1892, the Browns joined Major League Baseball, in the National League. The franchise changed its name to the St. Louis Cardinals in 1900.

Since becoming the Cardinals, the team has never ended the season with the worst record in the National League. The Cardinals came close in 1978 when they finished at 69-93, three games ahead of the New York Mets in the National League East and tied with the Atlanta Braves, who finished in last in the NL West. In 1990, the Cardinals finished last in the NL East at 70-92, but the Braves were worse overall the National League, with five fewer wins than the Cardinals.

In the 123 seasons as the Cardinals, St. Louis has had a losing record only 39 times—an incredible run of sustained success. The Cardinals have won the World Series 11 times and are considered an elite MLB franchise. My friend Howard Megdal wrote a book on the Cardinals’ winning approach called The Cardinal Way.

You have to go all the way back to 1898, when the franchise was known as the Browns, to find a season when that team had the worst record in the National League. 1898! That was 125 years ago! And it was a doozy of a season, as the Browns went 39-111-4: a .260 winning percentage. They were worse in 1897—the Browns only had 29 wins that season.

On Friday, June 16, the Cardinals had the worst record in the National League at 27-42. At the close of play on Sunday night, the Cardinals had edged ahead of the Washington Nationals and the Colorado Rockies, thanks to two wins this weekend over the struggling New York Mets. The Nationals were swept by the Marlins; the Rockies were swept by the Braves.

Still, there is a very real possibility that the Cardinals will finish the 2023 season with the worst record in the National League.

Two hundred and fifty miles to the west along Interstate Highway 70, the Kansas City Royals are locked in a bitter battle with the Oakland A’s for the worst record in the American League. Both the A’s and Royals have 19 wins this season; the A’s have played three more games and recorded three more losses.

The Royals came into existence as an expansion franchise in 1969 and haven’t had nearly the level of sustained success the Cardinals have had. In 54 seasons, the Royals have had a winning percentage at or above .500 only 22 times.

In 2004 and 2005, the Royals had the worst record in the American League; in 2005, the Royals’ 56-106 record was the worst in the majors. In three other seasons—1999, 2006, and 2010, the Royals avoided having the worst record in the American League by one game.

The teams met once in the World Series in 1985. The Cardinals were up three games to two and leading Game 6 1-0 when first base umpire Don Denkinger blew a call at first, calling Royals batter Jorge Orta safe at first on a grounder to the right side when replay showed Orta out by half a step. But there was no video replay review in 1985. The Royals rallied that inning, won the game, and beat the Cardinals in Game 7 by the score of 11-0.

Denkinger passed away one month ago.

We’ve never had a season where both the Royals and the Cardinals ended with the worst records in their leagues.

This might be the year.

Clipped wings

I wrote about the Cardinals’ struggles in last Monday’s newsletter. I was surprised to see St. Louis in second place on the attendance-per-game list, given their terrible win-loss record.

After Monday’s newsletter published, the Giants swept a three-game series against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. In the third game on Wednesday, the Giants were down to their last strike. The Cardinals led 5-3 in the top of the 9th. Cardinals reliever Giovanny Gallegos walked the first batter, retired the next two, and had Mike Yastrzemski in a 2-2 count when Yastrzemski launched a two-run home run to tie the game. The Giants won it in extra innings after scoring three runs off Steven Matz in the 10th.

Gallegos made sense in that situation. Heading into the game, Gallegos led the team in saves with 8. He had the lowest walk rate of any reliever on the team and a strikeout rate hovering near 25%. Plus, Ryan Hensley had gone on the injured list on June 10, leaving Gallegos as the main closer.

He just didn’t get the job done that day.

That’s been the story of the Cardinals all season. Good players failing to perform at critical times in the game.

We are so used to the Cardinals finding a way to win that we don’t know what to make of it when they don’t. It’s like the rally squirrel is in some weird opposite-day time warp and can’t find his way out.

Some analysts think the Cardinals will snap out of it and revert to their winning ways. That’s how I read David Roth’s take on Sunday at Defector. The veteran leaders on the team—Goldschmidt, Arenado and Adam Wainright—stand behind manager Oli Marmol, according to Katie Woo at The Athletic. The fact that these guys didn’t convey a sense of urgency to Woo is, to me, the most telling sign that not much is going to change.

Royals flush

The saga surrounding the Oakland (soon to be Las Vegas) A’s is well known to newsletter readers. Everyone in baseball agrees that A’s owner John Fisher purposefully stripped his team down for parts and traded away every good player for less than an optimal return in order to depress attendance and show MLB and other owners that Oakland can’t support a team. That would then smooth his path to Vegas. And it sure looks like his strategy is going to work.

Is the same thing happening with the Royals, but with less national attention? The folks over at SBNation’s Royals’ site—Royals Review—think it’s at least possible that team owner John Sherman is angling to build a new ballpark in downtown Kansas City that would include—you guessed it—real estate investments that would be more profitable than the Royals.

In the meantime, the Royals’ Opening Day payroll for the 26-man roster was about $92 million, higher than the A’s, Orioles, Rays and Guardians in the American League. Twenty million of the $92M goes to Salvador Perez, the 33-year-old catcher who’s played his entire MLB career with Kansas City. And so far, that’s working out okay for the Royals as Perez has the fifth-highest fWAR among American League catchers (0.9).

The next highest paid players are starters Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles. Greinke returned to his original team on a one-year deal worth $8.5 million. And like Perez, Greinke is holding up his end of the bargain: he’s accumulated 0.6 fWAR so far, despite his 1-7 record (because pitcher wins is one of the stupidest stats in baseball). Lyles is on a two-year, $17 million deal which makes you scratch your head. Yes, Lyles eats innings, but he’s performed below replacement level for far this season. One reader who’s a lifelong Royals fan called Lyles “the worst pitcher in baseball history.” Things are not going well in Kansas City.

Indeed, the two most productive players this season are veteran utility guy Matt Duffy and Nick Pratto, who was called up from Triple-A to take over first base after Vinnie Pasquatino suffered a season-ending injury.

Bobby Witt Jr. is the young “star” who’s regressed at the plate this season while significantly improving his defense. But there isn’t enough talent around Witt to excited about how he can anchor a return to the team’s winning ways. It was only 8 years ago when the Royals won the World Series.