We're A Third The Way Through The Season, Here's What Has Surprised Me So Far

Hello there. It’s been a while. A long while.

I’ve been busy with client projects and hanging out with my daughter after she returned home following her sophomore year of college. She left Sunday for the sleep away camp she’s called her summer home for 11 years—likely her final year as a counselor. Over the last few weeks, I’ve been soaking up as much time with her as I can. We’ve watched a lot of baseball together; I just haven’t had the time to write about it.

Tuesday I found some time. So let’s get to it.

Could the Braves miss the postseason?

Maybe.

Just a few weeks into the season, Atlanta lost its best pitcher, Spencer Strider, to season-ending surgery on the UCL in his throwing (right) elbow. The internal brace procedure is less invasive than Tommy John surgery, which means Strider might be back earlier in the 2025 season but he will not pitch again in 2024.

In May, Atlanta lost its best hitter, Ronald Acuña Jr., to season-ending surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. Acuña tore the ACL in his right knee in July 2021 and missed the postseason when the Braves won the World Series for the first time since 1995. Acuña returned to action in late April 2022, so if history is any guide, he should be ready to at the start of the 2025 season but he will not play again in 2024.

Very few teams could withstand a loss of their best pitcher and their best hitter for the season and still have hopes of contending for a World Series title. But the Braves are not just any team.

Or are they?

Last season, Acuña was the best hitter in the National League, as measured by OBP (on-base percentage), OPS (on-base plus slugging), wRC+ (weighted Runs Created Plus), and fWAR (Wins Above Replacement). But Acuña, alone, was not responsible for powering the Braves to 104 wins and the National League East title.

Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and Austin Riley finished the season in the top 10 in the NL in fWAR (offense) and in the top 12 in wRC+. Olson hit 54 home runs to lead the NL; Ozuna hit 40 and Riley had 37.

This season is a whole different, and surprising, story.

Even before his injury, Acuña was hitting just .250/.351/.365 with 4 home runs. Matt Olson is slashing .241/.326/.443 with only 9 home runs. Austin Riley missed two weeks in May with left intercostal inflammation and on the season is batting only .234/.302/.366 with 3 home runs.

Only Ozuna has followed up his monster 2023 with a monster 2024 at the plate: he leads the NL with 17 home runs and has posted a 179 wRC+. Only Ohtani’s wRC+ is higher in the NL.

Atlanta’s scored only 247 runs, heading into Tuesday’s action—7th out of 15 teams in the NL.

With a nod to the great Braves teams of the 1990’s, this year for Atlanta, it’s been about the pitching.

Chris Sale, acquired in a trade with the Red Sox over the winter, has been a revelation at age 35. Sale’s fastball has lost a step or two but his change up is as nasty as ever, putting Sale in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate, according to Statcast. Sale is 8-1 after 11 starts, effectively taking over the “ace” role from the injured Strider.

Reynaldo López, signed in the offseason for three years and $30 million looks like the best winter signing outside of Shohei Ohtani. López had been a starter with the White Sox at the start of his career, but then converted to a reliever. Atlanta put him back in the rotation and he’s been excellent. In 10 starts, López has posted a 1.79 ERA. His K% is down from last season, which is to be expected when a pitcher converts from a reliever to a starter, as he can’t pitch with maximum effort across 6 innings the way he did across 1.

Max Fried has been solid-plus. In two games this season, Fried was pulled by Braves manager Brian Snitker after 6 and 7 innings, respectively, despite not allowing a hit. Before Tuesday’s start against the Red Sox, Fried had posted a 2.97 ERA.

Still, the quality of Fried’s stuff has deteriorated since 2022, according to Statcast. Compare the value of his pitches in 2022 versus this season.

Before Tuesday’s action, the Braves sat 7 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. That’s not an insurmountable lead in theory but the Phillies are running on all cylinders even without shortstop Trea Turner.

Of course, there are now three wild card spots in each league. At the moment, the Braves lead the NL wild card race by 4.5 games over the Padres but everything is super bunched up. Every team but the Rockies and Marlins is within 4 games of the last wild card spot.

FanGraphs and Baseball Reference give the Braves a greater than 90% chance of making the postseason. They have the talent, even if the talent hasn’t performed all that well at the plate this season, other than Ozuna.

If Olson and Riley don’t get going, or if Chris Sale turns into a pumpkin at midnight, or Max Fried’s performance falls in line with this peripherals, it’s entirely possible the Braves will miss the postseason. Likely? No. But possible.

The American League Cy Young race is between Tarik Skubal, Luis Gil, and Tanner Houck?

If you’re more of a casual baseball fan, or you root for an NL team and don’t pay much attention to the AL until the postseason, you might be asking who Tarik Skubal, Luis Gil, and Tanner Houck are.

Let me introduce you.

That’s Statcast’s leaderboard for MLB starters this season, sorted by wOBA (weighted on-base average against). Remember that “weighted” baseball stats take into account how much each event (walk, single, double, triple, home run, sacrifice, strikeout, hit by pitch) contributed to scoring a run.

Other than the Phillies Ranger Suarez, Luis Gil, Tanner Houck, and Tarik Skubal lead the majors in keeping hitters off base and, when they reach base, limited them to singles, and thus making it harder for the opposing team to score.

Luis Gil is, ostensibly, the Yankees’ fifth starter, taking over the open spot created when the other Yankees starters—Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, and Clarke Schmidt moved up after 2023 Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole was put on the injured list before the season with nerve inflammation in his throwing (right) elbow.

The 25-year-old Gil hadn’t thrown a major-league pitch since early 2022. He had Tommy John surgery early that season and had been recuperating and rehabbing through the rest of 2022 and all of 2023. This season, he’s been lights out. His 4-seam fast ball, changeup, and slider combination keeps hitters off balance. Gil’s only blemish is a high walk rate (12.4% heading into Tuesday’s start). His ERA is under 1.82.

Skubal is the Tigers’ ace—a 27-year-old lefty who throws absolute gas. His fastball averages 97 mph, as does his sinker. No wonder he’s striking out more than 30% of batters he faces. His ERA sits at 1.97 and his record at 7-1. The Tigers are 9-3 when Skubal starts.

Tanner Houck doesn’t blow hitters away with a blazing fastball. He flummoxes them with a nasty splitter. Batters chase Houck’s splitter and often whiff; when they do put a bat on the ball, it leads to weak contact. Only 4.2% of batters have “barreled” up a Houck pitch this season. A ball that’s been “barreled” has been hit with an exit velocity and launch angle that has led to at least a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. He’s given up only one home run.

None of these starters even whiffed the Cy Young voting last season. Now they look like favorites.

Jurickson Profar is the Padres’ best hitter?

If you think Reynaldo López was a steal for the Braves, wait until you hear about Jurickson Profar’s contract with the Padres.

In late February, after trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees, the Padres signed Profar to a 1-year deal with $1 million in guaranteed salary and $1.5 million in performance bonuses.

The 31-year-old outfielder ended the 2023 season with San Diego after he played most of the season with the Rockies. Profar also played the 2020, 2021, and 2022 seasons at Petco Park, so the Padres were familiar with his skills and knew that he’d be a dependable defensive outfielder.

But not even the Padres could’ve foreseen what Profar has produced at the plate so far this season: .329/.424/.491 with 11 doubles and 8 home runs in 255 plate appearances.

Profar is third in the NL among qualified hitters with 179 wRC+. Only Ohtani and Ozuna are ahead of him, but barely. Mookie Betts? Freddie Freeman? Bryce Harper? None of have posted offensive stats as good as Profar through the first two-plus months of the season.

With Xander Boegarts out indefinitely with a fractured shoulder and Manny Machado hitting well below his career averages, Profar has filled the void for San Diego.

Those are my biggest surprises so far this season. What are yours?