The X-Factor In Each Division Series

Photo by Dez Hester @DezHester on Unsplash

Today kicks off two American League Division Series and two National League Division Series. These are best-of-five contests, so winning Game 1 is pretty darn important. Between 2008-2022, the team that won Game 1 of their Division Series won the series 78% of the time.

Let’s get to it.

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles

Game 1, October 7, 1:03 pm EDT/10:03 am PDT (FS1)

Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney LHP (Rangers) v. Kyle Bradish RHP (Orioles)

The smart money is on the Orioles in this series, but I have to ask why. Over the 2023 season, FanGraphs WAR says the Rangers performed better on offense and defense, and had stronger starting pitching. The Orioles had a lockdown bullpen, but that’s been weakened by the absence of closer Félix Bautista, who went on the injured list in late August and will have Tommy John surgery soon.

Owing much to their excellent bullpen, the Orioles were 30-16 in one-run games. Remember the Marlins? They had an even better record in one-run games. But as we saw in their Wild Card Series against the Phillies, you have to keep a game close to have a chance to win by one run. The key for the Orioles will be to keep the Rangers’ offense in check—an offense that does stall out sometimes but that was all cylinders against the Rays.

• Will Baltimore’s young players crack under pressure?

Rookie Gunnar Henderson, who shared time as shortstop and third base, and second-year catcher Adley Rutschman, sparked the Orioles’ offense to new heights this season. Henderson is 22. Rutschman is 25. Neither has played in the postseason. Same for Game 1 starting pitcher Kyle Bradish and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who are 26. Centerfielder Cedric Mullins, 28, played on Team USA in this year’s World Baseball Classic, so he’s familiar with playing elimination games in a raucous ballpark environment. But the MLB postseason is a different beast. Let’s see how the kids hold up.

• Which Rangers bullpen will show up?

I’ve documented the Texas’ bullpen struggles. They’re well known and almost cost the Rangers a playoff spot. Much to my surprise, Rangers relievers pitched very well in the two-game sweep of the Rays last week. But they didn’t have to cover that many innings because starters Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi pitched deep into their games. Game 1 starter Andrew Heaney started only one game in September and otherwise came out of the bullpen. He hasn’t pitched six innings or more since August 1. Expect to see more of the Rangers bullpen in Game 1. That may not be good for Texas.

Minnesota Twins v. Houston Astros

Game 1, October 7, 4:45 pm EDT/1:45 pm PDT (FS1)

Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober RHP (Twins) v. Justin Verlander RHP (Astros)

It’s the defending World Series Champions taking on a Minnesota Twins team that may be peaking at just the right time. The Twins played nearly flawless baseball in two games against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series, while the Astros struggled at the end of the season against the Royals and the A’s. The Astros needed a 3-game sweep of the Diamondbacks in the last series of the season to secure the American League West crown.

Still, the Astros have so much postseason experience. Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, and Alvarez at the plate. Verlander, Valdez, and Pressly on the mound. Hard to bet against them.

• Will the Twins play spectacular defense like they did in Wild Card Series or revert to the mediocre defense they played in the regular season?

My friend Jay Jaffe wrote an excellent post over at FanGraphs on how the postseason teams stacked up on defense. As Jay explained, there are a lot of publicly-available advanced metrics that measure fielding/defense and they don’t always align. Using that data, Jay concluded that the Twins had about a league average defense this season. (The Astros were below average). But in their two victories over the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series, the Twins played exceptional defense that significantly contributed to their wins. It was Michael A. Taylor diving around the outfield and Carlos Correa sliding into perfect position at shortstop to make game-changing plays. The Twins will need that level of defense to beat the Astros.

• Will Astros closer Ryan Pressly struggle?

Pressly showed some cracks this season that could spell trouble for the Astros. Pressly ended the season with a 0.01 Win Probability Added. That is not a great WPA for a closer who, by the nature of the job, pitches almost exclusively when the game is late and close. Pressly’s strikeout rate dropped precipitously this year to 27.6% from a career high 35.7% strikeout rate in 2022. That might explain why Pressly had 10 meltdown innings in 2023, his highest meltdown number since 2018 (when he started the season with the Twins and ended it with the Astros). The Astros will need shutdowns—not meltdowns—from Pressly to get through to the League Championship Series.

Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves

Game 1, October 7, 6:07 pm EDT/3:07 pm PDT (TBS)

Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez LHP (Phillies) v. Spencer Strider RHP (Braves)

The 2023 Braves may be the best offensive team in our lifetime, top to bottom. Three players with 40+ home runs (Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Marcel Ozuna). Another two players with 30+ home runs (Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies). And another two with 20+ dingers (Sean Murphy, Eddie Rosario). Add in Acuña’s 73 stolen bases and it’s difficult to see how the Phillies will stop Atlanta.

The problem for Atlanta is that their starting pitching after Game 1 is dicey. Max Fried has been dealing with a blister on his pitching hand. Bryce Elder has faded down the stretch. And Charlie Morton is still on the injured list. The Phillies may not have the Braves’ firepower, but their offense is very good and can cause real trouble against all Braves pitchers not named Spencer Strider.

• Will Bryce Harper destroy the Braves like he did in the 2022 postseason?

In 16 at-bats against the Braves in the 2022 Division Series, Bryce Harper had 8 hits—3 singles, 3 doubles, and 2 home runs—for a gaudy slash of .500/.529/1.063. Max Fried couldn’t stop Harper. Spencer Strider couldn’t stop Harper. Charlie Morton couldn’t stop Harper. If Harper comes close to that kind of production against the Braves this postseason, the Phillies might be in business.

• Will Atlanta’s bullpen be a problem?

In mid-September, I wrote about the propensity of the Braves’ relievers to give up home runs and wondered if that would cause the Braves trouble in the postseason. Well, here we are and I’m still wondering. The Phillies hit 220 home runs this season. Sure, that pales in comparison to the Braves’ 307 home runs, but it’s nothing to sneeze at. The Phillies hit the third-most dingers in the National League, behind only the Braves and the Dodgers. They can mash. The question is whether Braves relievers can contain them.

Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Dodgers

Game 1, October 1, 9:20 pm EDT/6:20 pm PDT (TBS)

Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly RHP (D’Backs) v. Clayton Kershaw LHP (Dodgers)

On paper, this series looks to me like the biggest mis-match. The Dodgers have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at the top of their lineup. They have one of the best hitting catchers in the majors in Will Smith. They have a guy who looks like he wouldn’t start on his accounting company’s softball team hitting clutch homer and clutch homer (Max Muncy). They have tanned, rested, and ready J.D. Martinez.

The Diamondbacks have Merrill Kelly lined up to pitch Game 1 and Game 4, if necessary. In 16 lifetime starts against the Dodgers, Kelly is 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA.

But life isn’t that simple, is it?

• How will Dave Roberts deploy his pitchers to cover 9 innings every game?

The Dodgers don’t so much have a starting rotation as they have a merry-go-round of very good to excellent pitchers. Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is pitching with a bum left shoulder. Bobby Miller is a rookie—a very good rookie—who’s pitched 7+ innings in a game only three times all season. LA’s best relievers—Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, Ryan Brasier and Evan Phillips—typically pitch one inning per appearance. Manager Dave Roberts has stretched them to 2 innings on occasion, but it’s not the norm. There’s sometime starter Ryan Pepiot. There’s sometime starter Emmet Sheehan. And there’s long reliever Ryan Yarbrough. He can give the Dodgers 3-4 innings in a game, but he usually needs a few days rest in between.

This will not be easy for Dave Roberts.

• Can the D’Backs knock out Kershaw early?

The key for Arizona is to put up a bunch of runs on Kershaw early in Game 1 and make Dave Roberts scramble his pitching plans. It’s not as impossible as it sounds. D’Backs first baseman Christian Walker has hit Kershaw hard in his career, to the tune of .294/.333/.735 in 34 at-bats. Third baseman/DH Evan Longoria has 11 hits off Kershaw in his career in 36 at-bats. And second baseman Ketel Marte has slugged .543 lifetime against Kershaw in 46 at-bats.

Stranger things have happened.