The Wild Card Races Are Total Chaos

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National League Wild Card Chaos

The Giants are no longer in the postseason hunt as they were eliminated from contention Tuesday night. And while I’m unhappy about the season and the direction of the franchise, I can look around dispassionately at what’s happening in the Wild Card races and enjoy the chaos.

Sorry Cubs fans. Your pain is real but the craziness is entertaining to the rest of us.

Here’s where things stand in the NL Wild Card race heading into Thursday’s abbreviated schedule:

The Phillies clinched the No. 1 Wild Card (and as I wrote yesterday, are headed into the postseason in a strong position). The Diamondbacks’ 2-game lead for the second spot gives them some wiggle room but . . . . Arizona finishes the season with a 3-game series against the Astros. Houston is fighting for its postseason life in the American League Wild Card. More on that below.

The Cubs and Marlins are tied for the third Wild Card spot, but the Marlins hold the tiebreaker by virtue of their 4-2 record against the Cubs this season. The Reds and Padres are hanging on for dear life and would need for a lot of bad things to happen to the Cubs and the Marlins over the next 4 games to have a chance.

The Padres, in particular, need to win their remaining 4 games against the White Sox and hope for the Reds, Marlins, and Cubs to lose their remaining games. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

We find ourselves with this mess because bad things have been happening to the Cubs all week. Well, all month, really.

On Tuesday, the Cubs took a 6-0 lead into the bottom of the 6th against the Braves in Atlanta with their ace, Justin Steele, on the mound. The Braves scored 3 in the 6th off Steele, 2 off Javier Assad in the 7th, and 2 off Drew Smyly in the 8th after Seiya Suzuki dropped an easy fly ball after—seemingly—losing it in the lights.

Here’s the Win Probability chart for Tuesday’s game:

You can point fingers at Suzuki for crumbling under pressure but he’s been powering the Cubs’ offense in September, hitting .376/.433/.731 with 7 home runs. In other words, they’d be in worse shape without him.

The hard reality is that the Cubs’ bullpen is in tatters. Three relievers are on the injured list—closer Adbert Azolay plus Michael Fullmer and Brad Boxberger—and three others have been performing below replacement level in September: Julian Merryweather, Hayden Wesneski, and Mark Leiter Jr. Overall, the Cubs’ bullpen is ranked 26th in fWAR in September.

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The shaky bullpen and sloppy defense cost the Cubs again in Wednesday’s game against the Braves. The Cubs took an early 3-1 lead. In the 7th, the Braves scored 1 on a Nico Hoerner throwing error. In the 8th, the Braves tied it when Ronald Acuña Jr. singled, stole 2nd, and scored on an Ozzie Albies single. The Cubs retook the lead 4-3 in the 9th only to see Marcel Ozuna tie it in the bottom of the inning with a solo homer. Chicago then scored the ghost runner in the 10th, but Acuña and Albies combined again for 2 hits and 2 runs in the bottom of the inning to walk it off.

To add insult to injury, Acuña stole his 70th base of the season to get into scoring position in the bottom of the 10th. That stolen base made Acuña the only player in major league history to hit 40 home runs and steal 70 bases in one season. And that prompted to Acuña to rip second base off the diamond and hoist it over his head. Cubs announcers Jon Sciambi and Jim Deshaies were none too pleased by the delay.

American League Wild Card Chaos

There are fewer teams still in the AL Wild Card race, compared to the NL, but that doesn’t make the situation any less crazy. Here’s where things stand as of Thursday morning.

The Rays clinched the top spot last week and still have a slim hope to catch the Orioles for the AL East division title. That slim hope would have the Rays winning their remaining 3 games (against the Blue Jays) and the Orioles losing their remaining 4 games (against the Red Sox). Not likely.

So the remaining battle is for the 2nd and 3rd Wild Card spots. The Jays were sitting pretty over the weekend, but have lost two straight to the Yankees. Those teams match up tonight in Toronto. Then the Jays host the Rays over the weekend.

If the Orioles win today—and thereby clinch the AL East—that could lead Rays manager Kevin Cash to rest some players and reshuffle his rotation and bullpen this weekend to prepare for the Wild Card series that starts Tuesday. Or Cash could be motivated to knock the Jays out of the postseason—or out of the 2 spot into the 3 spot—if he prefers to face the Astros or Mariners in the Wild Card round.

The Astros took 2 out of 3 from the Mariners this week in Seattle, which gave Houston some breathing room. To stay alive, the Mariners need to win at least 3 out of 4 this weekend—starting tonight. The problem for the Mariners is that they face the Rangers for the final 4 games. And the Rangers have no incentive to take it easy on Seattle because they have yet to clinch the AL West. Texas is up 2 1/2 games on Houston for the division. To win the division, Texas must end the season at least 1 game up on the Astros because Houston holds the tiebreaker between the teams.

Seattle holds the tiebreaker over the Astros for the 3rd Wild Card spot, so Houston must finish the season at least 1 game ahead of the Mariners to get into the playoffs. And while the Mariners have it tough against the Rangers, the Astros face the Diamondbacks for 3 this weekend in Arizona. Even with all the chaos for the 3rd Wild Card spot, the heat is on the D’Backs to win at least 2 games to secure the 2nd spot.

God bless the MLB schedule makers.

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