The trade-deadline deals making the biggest difference down the stretch

The biggest names to move at the trade deadline were Max Scherzer, from the Mets to the Rangers, and Justin Verlander, from the Mets to Astros. Scherzer pitched well in 7 out of 8 starts, but is now out for the season, and most likely the postseason, with a strain in the teres muscle in his pitching arm. In his 9 starts with Houston, Verlander has dominated in two, pitches pretty well in four, and given up 5 or more runs in the other three. Each stabilized their new team’s rotation, but I don’t see them as big difference makers. Especially Scherzer, given his injury.

Other contending teams made smaller moves, picking up role players that have played well, especially in high leverage situations, and pushed their new teams to the brink of a postseason berth.

Paul Sewald, RHP, traded from the Mariners to the Diamondbacks

Tommy Pham, OF, traded from the Mets to Diamondbacks

At the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks were 52-39 and tied for first place in the National League West. By the August 1 trade deadline, Arizona had dropped to third place in the division behind the Dodgers and Giants, at 57-50. Then things went from bad to worse for the D’Backs after the trade deadline. Arizona lost 9 in a row starting on August 1.

After Monday night’s win over the Giants, the Diamondbacks find themselves at 80-72 and in second place in the Wild Card race, only 2 1/2 games behind the Phillies for the first Wild Card spot. The D’Backs have gained ground as other teams fighting for a Wild Card spot have played pretty mediocre baseball of late, particularly the Cubs and Giants.

But the D’Backs have also put together an 11-7 September; 6 of those 11 wins were over the Cubs, which launched Arizona over Chicago in the Wild Card standings.

Closer Paul Sewald and outfielder Tommy Pham have come up big for the D’Backs in this stretch.

Before the trade deadline, the D’Backs’ bullpen had posted a -0.15 Win Probability Added. Given that relievers tend to pitch later in games, when Win Probability shifts are greater, having a negative WPA is a sign of shaky bullpen.

Sewald has calmed everything down by giving manager Tony Lovullo a solid option for the 9th inning. Sewald’s thrown 16 2/3 innings in 19 appearances and recorded 12 saves. He has one blown loss and one blown save. Sewald is a big upgrade over Andrew Chafin, who the D’Backs shipped off the the Brewers.

When you look at Tommy Pham’s slash line for Arizona, it doesn’t look that impressive: .262/.318/.470 in 179 plate appearances. But Pham has been money with the game on the line.

Pham played his first game for Arizona on August 3. From that game forward, Pham’s accumulated 1.26 Win Probability Added, the most of any D’Backs player, including Corbin Carroll. Pham is also ranked 13th best in the National League in WPA since the beginning of August. The names above Pham on that list include Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Matt Olson. Pretty good company.

Mark Canha, OF, traded from the Mets to Brewers

As I wrote last week, the Brewers are in first place in the NL Central thanks to solid pitching and exceptional defense. But you still have to score runs to win. Nobody’s helped the Brewers more score runs in high leverage situations in August and September than Mark Canha.

In 165 plate appearances over 41 games for Milwaukee, Canha is hitting .313/.394/.435. Pretty impressive for a small sample size. What’s more impressive? His 1.81 Win Probability Added for the Brewers. That’s good for 5th best in the National League since August 1. Only Harper, Turner, Acuña, and Betts have been better.

Before the trade deadline, the Brewers were averaging 4.15 runs per game. Since August 1, that number’s gone up to 5.18 runs per game. Is that all because of Mark Canha? Surely not. But he has made a big difference for the Brewers’ offense.

Jake Burger, 3B, traded from the White Sox to the Marlins

Jorge Soler has been so, so good for the Marlins this season in high leverage situations. According to Baseball-Reference, Soler is batting .333/.426/.741 in “late and close” plate appearances. That’s a 1.116 OPS with the game on the line! It helps explain how the Marlins are 31-13 in 1-run games.

Yet, since arriving in Miami, Jake Burger has had a higher Win Probability Added than Jorge Soler. Granted, Soler was on the injured list for 11 days with an oblique strain and WPA is a cumulative stat. Still, Soler’s WPA since August 1 is 1.00. Burger’s is 1.48—10th best in the National League.

It’s a complete turnaround for Burger. The 27-year-old hit .214/.279/.527 in 88 games for the White Sox. In 44 games for the Marlins, Burger’s hitting .310/.366/.524.

If the Marlins sneak in as the last Wild Card team, Burger will be a big reason why.