The Teams That Should Try To Trade For Shohei Ohtani

You made it to the All-Star Break. Congratulations. Watching and reading about baseball day in and day out can be exhausting. Take your well-deserved rest from watching baseball, but don’t stop reading about baseball. Because you want to be prepared for the second half of the season—the trade deadline, the division races, and the sure-to-be wild wild card races. Curl up with this newsletter between rounds of tonight’s Home Run Derby.

Speaking of the trade deadline, today we’re talking about whether the Los Angeles Angels should trade Shohei Ohtani (duh, yes), whether they will (maybe?), and which teams should try to trade for Ohtani before the August 1 trade deadline.

Why should the Angels trade Ohtani now? Because with Mike Trout out with a hand injury until at least mid-August, the Angels’ odds to make the postseason—even as a wild card team—have dropped significantly. Baseball-Reference now gives the Angels a 4% chance to nab a wild card spot. FanGraphs is a bit more optimistic, giving LAA a 10% chance to make the postseason.

If the Angels’ play over the last three weeks is any indication, they will be completely out of postseason contention by the time Trout is ready to play again. Even before Trout fractured his hand, the Angels were mired in a season-defining slump.

On June 16, the Angels had a record of 40-32 and sat in second place in the American League West, 3.5 games behind the Texas Rangers. Trout injured his hand on July 4 and was removed from the game, which the Angels lost to the Padres. At that point, their record was 45-43. Three additional losses later, the Angels entered the All-Star Break at 45-46 and in fourth place, 7 games behind the Rangers, with the Astros and Mariners in between.

Ohtani is a free agent at the end of this season. He will command a gigantic salary. Bigger than Mike Trout’s 12-year/$426.5 million deal with the Angels. Bigger than Mookie Betts’ 12-year/$365 million contract with the Dodgers. Bigger than Aaron Judge’s 9-year/$350 million deal with the Yankees.

In my view, every MLB team should try to sign Ohtani this offseason, even the small market teams. Ohtani is a singular, generational talent. He commands fans’ attention and brings people to the ballpark to see what new record he’ll set that day. He is worth a $500 million commitment, or more.

But we all know that won’t happen. Small market teams won’t compete for Ohtani and then complain that his new contract his bad for baseball.

The first question the Angels have to answer before deciding whether to trade Ohtani now is whether they intend to offer him that kind of gigantic contract this offseason. In fact, the Angels could try to sign Ohtani to a huge deal right now before any other team gets its chance. Perhaps they have tried. We don’t know.

What we do know is that Ohtani appears to put a premium on winning. Which, of course, makes is much less likely he’ll re-sign with the Angels, a team that has not made the postseason since 2014, four years before Ohtani signed as a restricted free agent from the Japanese NPB.

So let’s just assume Ohtani will be a free agent this winter.

Everybody in the baseball world expects the Dodgers to go all out to sign Ohtani in the offseason. Of course, the Dodgers are prohibited by anti-tampering rules from making any moves right now, but their desire to reel in Ohtani is well known.

Other teams sure to be in on the Ohtani sweepstakes are the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Braves.

Before we get to the offseason, though, there is the matter of the 2023 season. Ohtani’s salary this season is $30 million. If the Angels trade him, the new team will be on the hook for the pro-rated portion of the $30 million—somewhere in the range of $10 million.

Every team in contention for the 2023 postseason can afford to add $10 million in salary for 2+ months of Ohtani.

The most interesting question, to me, is which contending teams should trade their top prospects to get 2+ months of Ohtani.

1. The Dodgers

The Dodgers are tied with the Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West, despite having a starting rotation in shambles and a bullpen that has resembled a tire fire at various points in the season. Adding Ohtani would propel the Dodgers past every other team in the NL, except for the Braves, and would increase their World Series odds considerably. That’s important for a franchise that has dominated the NL West for 10 years, but only won one World Series, and that one, to many, comes with an asterisk because it was in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

LA has the #1 or #2 farm system, depending on who you ask. So the Dodgers can trade high value prospects to get Ohtani, give him a taste of what life would be like in Dodger Blue before the offseason, perhaps win a World Series, and still have plenty of talent in the minors to compete in the years ahead.

2. The Diamondbacks

The D’Backs started to fade as the All-Star Break approached. They need a jolt to stay ahead of the Dodgers and Giants. Ohtani would strengthen a rotation led by All-Star starter Zac Gallen and replace a designated hitter that couldn’t crack a .200 batting average in the first half.

Arizona’s farm system is consistently ranked in the top 5. That puts them in a similar position to the Dodgers—they have high value assets to trade without compromising the team’s ability to stay competitive over the next five years.

The D’Backs won the World Series only once, in 2001. It’s time to go for it.

3. The Orioles

With the Rays limping into the All-Star Break having lost 7 of their last 10 games, Baltimore is now only two games back in the AL East. Ohtani would instantly upgrade a mediocre starting rotation. And he can take over as the DH, with current DH Ryan O’Hearn moving over to first place, where Ryan Mountcastle has been a below-replacement level player so far.

Like the Dodgers and the D’Backs, the Orioles have a highly-rated farm system and can trade for Ohtani and stay competitive going forward.

Baltimore last won the World Series 40 years ago. The time is now.

4. The Rays

Tampa Bay has never won a World Series. They have a small but loyal fan base. And they are currently in separate discussions with Tampa and St. Petersburg to build a new ballpark. Winning a World Series could be a big boon to those efforts.

The Rays’ farm system is ranked in the top 6, so like the Dodgers, D’Backs, and Orioles, they have real value to send to the Angels in exchange for Ohtani. He would instantly slot in with Zach Eflin and Shane McClanahan to make a formidable top 3 of the rotation. And Ohtani would take an already powerful offense to the next level.

Do it Rays.

5. The Guardians

Cleveland hasn’t won a World Series since 1948. The farm system is ranked in the top 3. The Guardians lead the AL Central by a 1/2 game over the Twins, but have a negative run differential.

The Guardians have the trade chips to get Ohtani, but would adding Ohtani make the Guardians serious World Series contenders? I’m not so sure. Do the Guardians have enough other offensive firepower to surround Ohtani with? Or would adding Ohtani simply replicate the problems the Angels have in winning consistently? This is a tough call.

6. The Reds

Can you just imagine the absolute joy of watching Ohtani and Elly De La Cruz play on the same team? My heart would explode.

The future is now for Cincinnati. So many talented young players. So much fun on the field. So many wins piling up. The Reds are in first place in the NL Central.

The question is whether the Reds’ best trade chips are the young guys already producing in the majors. Would Cincinnati have to break up its winning young core to get Ohtani for 2+ months? And would it be worth it do so? Or is there enough depth in the farm system to get Ohtani and still compete for a World Series in 2023? I’m not sure.

The Reds last won the World Series in 1990.

7. The Rangers

Like the Rays, the Rangers franchise has never won the World Series. And like the Rays, the Rangers lead their division by only two games, after a 3-7 slide heading into the All-Star Break. Ohtani would shore up a rotation that gets shaky after Nathan Eovaldi and significantly improve an already productive offense.

Texas has a top 10 ranked farm system. Rookie Josh Jung already graduated from prospect to major leaguer and is a key part of the Rangers’ lineup. But there is plenty more talent in the Rangers’ minors that is only a year or two away from the bigs. Would those be enough for the Angels in an Ohtani trade?

No, I do not think the Giants should try to trade for Ohtani, for several reasons. The farm system has improved under Farhan Zaidi but is not in the top 10. So it’s not clear to me the Giants even have the kind of players the Angels would demand. Second, the Giants are staying afloat in the NL West with the excellent play of their young core—Patrick Bailey, Blake Sabol, Luis Matos, and Casey Schmidt. (Sabol is a Rule 5 pick and can’t be traded). The Angels would probably love a catcher like Patrick Bailey but trading Bailey for 2+ months of Ohtani makes no sense, given Bailey’s performance so far and Joey Bart’s flame out. And while it’s been 9 years since last World Series parade in San Francisco, I wouldn’t mortgage the future for the chance to win another one this season.