The Phillies Will Be Dangerous In the Postseason. Again.

After the Philadelphia Phillies marched through the 2022 postseason and into the World Series, hopes and expectations for this season were off the charts. The team saw a 50% increase in season ticket sales—from 10,0000 to 15,000—and the player payroll soared to a franchise-high $250 million. Owner John Middleton said it was the best team the Phillies ever had.

But the 2023 campaign began on a sour note for the Phillies when first baseman Rhys Hoskins tore the ACL in his left knee at the end of spring training, knocking him out for the season. The Phillies were already down one regular player before Hoskins’ injury. Bryce Harper had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow after the 2022 World Series and was still in rehab mode when the season began. Hoskins and Harper were the third and fourth-most productive offensive players for the Phillies in 2022.

Things got worse for the Phillies when shortstop Trea Turner—the team’s big off-season free-agent signing—got off to a miserable start. At the end of May, Turner’s slash was a paltry .234/.279/.371. He’d hit just 5 home runs.

Harper returned at the beginning of May and hit a robust .315/.410/.483 that month, but the rest of the team—especially Turner— was mired in a funk. The Phillies’ slash for May was .234/.308/.373 for an 83 wRC+. Only 4 teams had a less effective offense in May.

On June 1, the Phillies’ record was 25-31. The team sat in 4th place, 8 games behind the division-leading Braves, with the Mets and Marlins in between.

Since June 1, the Phillies are 62-38. Now they’re headed into the postseason as the top National League Wild Card team. They will host the 2nd place Wild Card team—still be to decided—at Citizens Bank Ballpark for a Wild Card Series, starting Tuesday, October 3.

What made the Phillies so good in June, July, August and September will make them dangerous in October.

The Phillies are a balanced team.

They have a winning record in 1-run games, in blowout games, and in extra inning games. They have 43 comeback wins. Unlike the Braves—who regularly put up big numbers in the 1st inning—the Phillies attack and attack and attack in every inning.

From June 1 forward, every position player on the Phillies has a wRC+ over 100—meaning that each player is hitting better than league average over that time. Even with a September slump, Harper still leads the way, hitting .286/.397/.492 in the last 4 months of the season. Turner famously turned his season around in mid-August after Phillies fans surrounded him with a standing ovation at his lowest point in the season. Since June 1, he’s hitting .278/.336/.501 with 21 home runs.

Here are the number from June 1 for the regular starting nine:

For the full season, the Phillies have 5 players with 20+ home runs (Harper, Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and JT Realmuto) and 2 players with 15+ (Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm). The long-haired, free-spirited center fielder Brandon Marsh has 11.

Sure, the Braves’ offense is better. Same for the Dodgers.

But the Phillies have something neither of those teams has: a healthy, full starting rotation.

FanGraphs ranks the Phillies’ rotation best in the majors, as measured by fWAR. They don’t overpower hitters with strikeouts but they don’t issue free bases at a high rate either. The starters’ strikeout-to-walk ratio (16.4%) is tied for 5th-best in the majors.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a formidable 1-2 combination, with Taijuan Walker a solid number 3. All have been healthy for the full season. Wheeler and Nola have thrown more than 185 innings. Walker’s thrown 165.

To be sure, Nola has not pitched as well as he did in 2022. He’s given up way too many home runs this season; his 1.49 home runs-per-9 is the 5th highest in the majors this season among qualified starters. The only starter with a higher HR/9 who will also pitch in the postseason is the Dodgers’ Lance Lynn.

Ranger Suárez and Christopher Sánchez took the bulk of the remaining starts for the Phillies and pitched well. Each has an ERA under 4.00. Suárez walks too many batters and Sánchez gives up too many home runs. It will be interesting to see how manager Rob Thomson uses them—if at all—particularly in the short Wild Card and Division Series (should the Phillies get that far).

It’s entirely unclear what role Michael Lorenzen will play. Lorenzen came over at the deadline in a trade with the Tigers. He threw a no-hitter in his second start with the Phillies, and has been largely ineffective since then. Thomson has used him sparingly out of the bullpen since mid-September.

The bullpen, too, has been strong all season. FanGraphs ranks it third-best in the majors as measured by fWAR, behind the Dodgers and Orioles—an interesting stat given that fWAR is cumulative and the Phillies bullpen has thrown the fewest innings of any bullpen so far this season. That’s what a solid and healthy starting rotation will do for you.

Matt Strahm and José Alvarado—both lefties—and Jeff Hoffman, a righty, have been very, very good out of the pen. They’re all striking out more than 10 batters per 9 innings and all have strand rates near or above 75%. Those are great numbers for relievers.

And then there’s closer Craig Kimbrel. I’m worried about Kimbrel and I’m sure Phillies fans are, too. He has 5 blown saves this season, including 2 in his last 2 appearances. All told, FanGraphs pegs him for 11 meltdown innings, compared to 33 shutdown innings. His walk rate is high—as it has been for the last 7 seasons. But that’s compounded by the fact that Kimbrel gives up 1.34 home runs per 9 innings. That number is driven by a lower ground ball rate than last season. Kimbrel’s giving up home runs on 14.7% of fly balls. And since he’s giving up more fly balls, that’s a big problem.

Kimbrel isn’t the only shaky closer on a contending team. I’ll write later this week on how bullpens—as they often do—will likely be deciding factors in a lot of postseason games. For the Phillies, success may depend on scoring enough runs to make a Kimbrel misstep in the 9th inning irrelevant.