The National League Wild Card Race Is A Mess

Yesterday, I ventured into the remaining schedules for the contending American League teams. Today, we’ll look at the National League, where there is more variation in the number of games remaining for each contender.

The Braves and Dodgers have 25 games left, while the Reds have only 21 games remaining. Atlanta and LA each play a double header and still will have fewer off days between today and the end of the regular season. Of course, the Braves and the Dodgers are almost certainly going to be the top two teams in the NL, which means they will have a bye during the Wild Card series, giving them time to rest and set up their rotations for the Division Series.

Cincinnati will have more off days between now and the end of the regular season, which is good, but fewer opportunities to rack up more wins in the National League Wild Card race. If the Reds do get into a Wild Card series, their pitchers may very well be better rested and that can be an advantage in a three-game series over three consecutive days.

Let’s dive into the details.

The Braves will win the NL East. The Dodgers will win the NL West. After the Braves took 3 out of 4 from the Dodgers over the weekend in Los Angeles, the Braves have a 6 games lead over the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. The Braves also have a 3 game lead over the Orioles for the best record in MLB.

That leaves the NL Central as the only NL division race with any drama. There, the Brewers have a 2.5 game lead over the Cubs. Chicago’s played 1 more game than Milwaukee and has 3 more losses. So far, the teams have faced each other 10 games, with each winning 5. The division could come down to the last three games of the regular season, when the Brewers and Cubs will play the final series in Milwaukee.

The NL Wild Card is . . . wild.

The Phillies and the Cubs aren’t locks to make the postseason, but we’re getting closer to that reality. And even though the Cubs are still battling the Brewers for the Central division title, what they’re really fighting over is the opportunity to play the third WC team and have home field advantage in the Wild Card series.

The Braves and Dodgers will have byes. The NL Central Division winner will play the third Wild Card team with the division winner hosting all three games (if 3 games are necessary). The top two Wild Card teams would play each other, with the top WC team hosting all of the games.

I have no idea how the Giants are still in contention for a Wild Card spot. Frankly, the fact that they are is an indictment of just how bad the rest of the National League is. (How did the season go so wrong for the Padres and Mets against this kind of competition???)

The Giants are 12-20 in August, plus the five games so far in September In those 32 games, they’ve scored 113 runs—the fewest of any team in the majors. Before exploding for 8 runs in Tuesday’s 11-8 loss to the Cubs, the Giants’ team slash line since August 1 was .220/.292/.334. That is awful! Like, really, really awful. And yet, here we are.

If you think you know which team is going to claim the final Wild Card spot, please tell what numbers to pick for this week’s lottery.

Here are the remaining games for each so-called contender.

Between the Cubs and Brewers, I give Milwaukee a slight schedule advantage with 6 games against the Cardinals and 3 against the Nationals. The Cubs do have 6 against the Rockies—the worst team in the National League—but three are at Coors Field, a haunted house of a ballpark.

In the Wild Card race, the Reds look to have the easiest schedule—by far—with only 1 series left against a team with a winning record (the Twins). Which is convenient for the Reds, because Cincinnati is 42-46 against teams at or above .500 so far this season.

Who knows what the schedulers were thinking when they put the D’Backs up against three American League teams for the final 9 games of the season. (They were probably thinking that the D’Backs wouldn’t be in contention this late in the season). And maybe after 7 games against the Cubs in mid-September, the D’Backs won’t be in contention anymore.

The Marlins have a tough road, with 15 out of 24 games against winning teams. So far this season, Miami is 33-43 in games against teams with a record of .500 or better. That doesn’t bode well for the Marlins, but the Fish have defied the odds all season. Miami’s 28-12 record in 1-run games is the best in the majors.

The Giants still have to play 7 games against the Dodgers. That’s probably enough to put the kibosh on San Francisco’s playoff hopes, as if the team’s putrid play over the last month wasn’t enough.

Good luck everyone! Have fun fighting over who gets to play the Braves.