The Giants' Two-Decade Long Power Outage

Somehow, the San Francisco Giants avoided losing three consecutive games to the Atlanta Braves over the weekend at Truist Park. The Giants had late-inning leads in Saturday’s and Sunday’s game, blew the lead on Saturday and lost, and blew the lead on Sunday, but won it on a bases loaded walk in the 9th inning. The Braves loaded the bases on a walk and two hit batters.

So the Giants won despite loading the bases through no real effort on their part and failing to get even a single hit with runners in scoring position, much less a game-defining home run.

Joc Pederson drew the bases-loaded walk. These days, that’s what qualifies for offense for both Pederson and the Giants. Pederson last hit a home run on July 28. He has 11 on the season. The Giants brought Pederson back this season after he hit 23 homers last season to lead the team in that category.

In 2021, Brandon Belt led the Giants with 29 homers. In 2019, Mike Yastrzemski had 21. Evan Longoria held the honor in 2018 with 16 dingers. In 2017, it was Belt again, with 18. And so on.

Not a single San Francisco Giants player has hit 30 home runs in a season since Barry Bonds hit 45 in 2004.

It’s the longest 30-homer drought in Major League Baseball.

The Giants’ 30-homer drought goes back so far, that a baby born that year (like my daughter) can now drive and vote. It’s longer than the next-longest 30-homer drought by more than 10 ten years.

Why focus on 30 home runs?

It’s a good question. And I have a good answer.

Hitting 30 home runs in a season is a good barometer of a player’s power. The mark is attainable for power hitters but not so easy that three or four guys on a team do it every season, except when MLB is juicing the ball, intentionally or otherwise.

Last year, 23 players hit 30+ homers. In 2019 and 2021, when home runs were way up around the league, 58 and 43 players, respectively reached that mark. In 2018, only 26 did it. In 2017, 40 players hit 30 or more home runs. And so on.

Park factors

Park factors measure the effect of a ballpark on singles, doubles, triples, home runs, and runs. Different statistical sites like Statcast, FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Prospectus calculate park factors in slightly different ways.

I’m going to use Statcast numbers here. Statcast calculates park factors using stats from a three-year period. As a result, the park factors for ballparks in 2023 are calculated with statistics from 2021, 2022, and as much of the season that’s been played in 2023.

Even without looking at the numbers, most baseball fans believe that Pac Bell-SBC-AT&T-Oracle Park in San Francisco is the most difficult home run environment in baseball. Perhaps that alone can explain why the Giants haven’t had a 30-homer guy since 2004.

Perhaps.

Click here to see Statcast’s current park factors for every MLB ballpark. It’s a big chart that I’m not going to post here in its entirety. Instead, I sorted home run park factors in ascending order, from least homer-friendly ballpark to most.

This season (again, using data from 2021-2023), Oracle Park is ranked as the 6th-most difficult ballpark for hitting home runs in MLB (excluding the London series).

In 2022, Oracle Park was the 4th-most difficult MLB ballpark for hitting home runs.

In 2021, it was the 2nd-most difficult home run environment.

Then we hit 2020. That abbreviated season, Oracle Park was the most difficult ballpark in the majors for hitting home runs.

The same was true in 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2008 and 2003.

So yes, for ten of the last 20 seasons, the Giants ballpark has been the toughest place in the majors to hit home runs. But for ten seasons, it wasn’t the most difficult, even if it was in the top 5 or 10.

But look closely at these lists. Again and again you see Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, loanDepot Park in Miami, PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Royals, Marlins, Pirates, and Rays have all had at least one 30-homer player in the last four seasons.

How close did the Giants get?

Brandon Belt hit 29 home runs in 2021—the season the Giants explicably won 107 games. But Belt was injured a good part of the season and only played 97 games. With that pace, Belt almost certainly would have reached the 30-homer mark.

In 2013—one of the seasons the Giants ballpark was the worst in the majors for hitting home runs—Hunter Pence hit 27. He played all 162 games.

Buster Posey hit 24 in 2012 when he was National League MVP. Aubrey Huff hit 26 in 2010, when the Giants won their first World Series since moving to San Francisco. Pablo Sandoval hit 25 in 2009. Bonds’ last two seasons were 2006 and 2007, when he hit 26 and 28 home runs, respectively.

Comparing the Giants to the rest of MLB

The hard truth is that the Giants have not drafted a player or signed an international player in more than 20 years that developed into a real, consistent power threat. Nor have they traded for a power hitter in the prime of his career. And with the ballpark’s reputation, the Giants certainly haven’t been able to sign any power hitters in free agency.

Somehow, even the teams that play in ballparks that suppress home runs have drafted, signed, or traded for power hitters.

Here is the list of each team’s player who most recently hit 30 or more home runs in a season. For some teams, more than one player accomplished the feat in the same season. My chart lists only the player who hit that most home runs in that season. The only team that appears twice is the Washington Nationals, as both Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto hit 34 home runs in 2019.

The * next to a player’s name means that he hit 30+ home runs for the team that drafted or signed him internationally.