The Elation And Heartbreak Of The Can't-Miss Prospect

The Cincinnati Reds called up top prospect Elly De La Cruz on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, De La Cruz was playing third base and batting cleanup for the Reds in their game against the Dodgers at Great American Ballpark.

De La Cruz is not just the Reds’ top prospect. ESPN, MLB.com, FanGraphs and The Athletic all ranked De La Cruz in the Top 6 of all MLB prospects heading into this season. The scouts and analysts behind these rankings use words like “dynamic,” “electric,” “no ceiling” and “the most exciting combination of tools and defensive fit in the minors.” The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote that De La Cruz has shown “80 power, 80 speed, and at least a 70 arm with crazy bat speed and quick-twitch actions all over the place.”

In 39 games with the Reds’ Triple-A team, the Louisville Bats, De La Cruz hit .297/.398/.633 with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases. But those numbers don’t tell the real story. De La Cruz hits the ball with such ferocity that he put up exit velocity numbers in the minors that would set records for MLB players. On May 9, for example, De La Cruz hit three extra base hits, each with an exit velocity over 116 mph. One double left his bat at 118.8 mph—the hardest hit ball in the majors or minors this season.

Did I mention that De La Cruz is only 21? And that he’s 6’5”? And that’s a switch hitter?

The Reds’ social media team has been tweeting non-stop since the team announced De La Cruz’s call-up early Tuesday afternoon. You can’t blame them. Everybody in the baseball world is buzzing over De La Cruz’s debut.

No pressure, kid.

On the first play of Tuesday’s game, De La Cruz mishandled a sharp grounder off the bat of Mookie Betts. The official scorer gave Betts a single, sparing De La Cruz an error in the first inning of his first MLB game. Betts eventually came around to score during the Dodgers’ three-run first. The Reds tied the game in the bottom of the inning, plating three off Tony Gonsolin. De La Cruz was right in the middle of the rally; he walked to the load the bases and scored from second on a liner to centerfield.

In his second at-bat, De La Cruz scorched a double for his first MLB hit. The exit velocity on his hit was 112 mph. He ran from home to second base in 7.74 seconds— that is elite speed.

De La Cruz then walked in the 5th, grounded out in 6th with runners on the corners, and was called out on strikes in the 8th. All in all, a 1-3 night with 2 walks. Oh, his double in the 3rd inning—with 112 mph exit velocity—immediately became the hardest hit ball of the season for the Reds.

Despite all of this hoopla, the Reds found themselves down 8-3 after 4 innings. But the Reds chipped away against a frazzled Dodgers bullpen and walked it off in the bottom of 9th. A fairytale ending to De La Cruz’s MLB debut.

The hype around De La Cruz is intense and the excitement at Great American Ballpark Tuesday night was palpable, even on my laptop. Former Reds star Barry Larkin, who is a color analyst on Reds’ TV broadcasts, said repeatedly during the game about De La Cruz, “He’s going to be a superstar.”

I hope Larkin is right. I hope Elly De La Cruz lives up to every expectation. I hope he shatters records. I hope he powers the Reds back to the postseason. I hope he brings excitement to baseball every day and attracts a new generation of fans.

Because, after all of this hype, if De La Cruz has only a mediocre major league career or worse, it will be heartbreaking for him, for the Reds organizations and for Reds fans.

Just ask Mets fans about Lastings Milledge. Drafted by the Mets in the first round of 2003 MLB Draft, Milledge steadily climbed Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list and reached the No. 9 spot in prior to the 2006 season. Scouts touted his plus speed and his ability to hit for average and power.

Milledge made his major league debut at the age of 21 on May 30, 2006 and saw action in 56 games with Mets that season. His final batting line was nothing spectacular: .241/.310/.380. He hit 4 home runs and stole only 1 base. He ended the season with -0.6 fWAR. The Mets traded Milledge after the 2007 season to the Nationals, who then traded him to Pirates in 2009.

Or ask Orioles fans about Brian Matusz. Baltimore drafted Matusz in the first round of the 2008 MLB Draft as the fourth overall pick. Matusz dominated in the minors, leading Baseball America to name Matusz the No. 5 prospect heading into the 2010 season—a higher prospect ranking than either Buster Posey or Madison Bumgarner.

Matusz debuted on August 4, 2009. He started 8 games at the end of that season and posted a 4.63 ERA. In his first full season in 2010, Matusz started 32 games. He was serviceable for the Orioles in 175 innings pitched—his career high. But never developed into the frontline starter the Orioles had hoped for.

We could go on and on. For every Mike Trout, there’s a Mark Appel. For every Bryce Harper, there’s a Mark Prior. There is no such thing as a sure thing.

We’re rooting for you, Elly.