The Braves Are Having An Even More Spectacular Season Than You Think

Today’s newsletter is all about the Atlanta Braves. But before I dive into their incredible statistics, a note to follow up on Monday’s newsletter about Trea Turner and the joy of being a sports fan. As I wrote on Monday, Turner has spent a large part of his first season with the Phillies mired in a terrible slump at the plate. A few weeks ago, Phillies fans did the unthinkable—they gave Turner standing ovations before each plate appearance in a game, hoping, perhaps, they could lift Turner out of his slump with their claps and cheers. Turner has hit well since those standing ovations. Overall in August, he’s hitting .315/.351/.537.

What should we make of this? Here’s what I wrote on Monday:

I had these thoughts on my mind as I watched the Giants continue their weeks-long offensive struggles in the first few innings of last night’s game against the Rays at Oracle Park. I was at the game with a group of friends and family and despite the Giants’ lackluster performance over the last month, we were all having fun.

In the bottom of the 6th inning, with the scored tied at 0-0, Thairo Estrada came to the plate with bases empty and one out. My friend Paul said, “He’s going to hit a home run here. I feel it.” Now, Thairo Estrada is no Barry Bonds. He’s not even Michael Conforto—the leading home run hitter on the Giants this season. Estrada is a hit machine and does go gap to gap, but he’s not a power hitter. Plus, Estrada just came off the IL after rehabbing a broken hand he suffered when hit by a pitch in a game on July 3.

Estrada hit a home run to give the Giants a 1-0 lead.

We went crazy with joy—both for the run and for Paul’s apparent magic in calling the home right before it happened.

Two batters later, rookie Wade Meckler came to the plate. Do yourself a favor and read this wonderful story about Meckler’s rocky journey to the top of the Oregon State baseball program. That will give you some idea of how high the cards have been stacked against Meckler his entire life in baseball.

The Giants called up Meckler before Monday’s game, where he went 0-3 with a walk and two strikeouts. Meckler stuck out in his first two at-bats on Tuesday night. I said to my group, “Let’s cheer on Meckler. Make some noise.” So we stood and cheered and hooped and hollered and lo and behold, Meckler lined his first major league into center field.

Pure joy.

There’s a lot of joy to go around for Atlanta Braves fans. The Braves have the best record in baseball at 77-42. They’ve scored the most runs (700) and, therefore, have the highest runs-per-game average in MLB (5.88). The Braves have hit the most home runs of any team (231), which is 45 more than the second-best homer hitting team (the Dodgers, with 186).

If the Braves keep up this pace, they’re going to set some new MLB records.

In the modern baseball era (1900 to the present), the record for most home runs by a team is 307, by the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Atlanta is hitting just under two home runs per game. They have 44 games left. So even if they fall off that pace, and hit just 77 more home runs, the Braves will set a new record for home runs by a team in a single season.

With all those home runs, it’s not surprising to see the Braves at the top of both the OPS and OPS+ leaderboards. The 2003 Red Sox hold the record for the highest team OPS in a season at .851. The Braves currently sit at .847.

OPS+ compares OPS by each player around the league and adjusts for ballpark factors. An OPS+ of 100 is league average. An OPS+ of 125 is 25% better than the league average. According to Statcast, Truist Park in Atlanta is a great ballpark for hitting home runs, is neutral on singles, and depresses doubles and triples. Right now, the Braves are tied with the 2017 Astros for the highest OPS+ by a team in a season, at 123.

Like OPS+, FanGraphs’ wRC+ statistic measures how many more runs a player created for his team compared to the league average, adjusting for ballpark effects. A 100 wRC+ is league average. A 125 wRC+ is 25% more than league average, after adjusting for a hitter’s home park.

Right now, the Braves’ team wRC+ is 125. If Atlanta stays at or exceeds that number, it will set a new record for team wRC+ in the Integration Era (1947 to the present). The 2019 Astros currently hold the record at 124 wRC+.

The 2023 Braves are an offensive juggernaut. Every regular player in Atlanta’s lineup has a wRC+ of 110 or higher, save for Eddie Rosario. That’s 8 batters in every game the Braves play that create more runs than the league average hitter: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olsen, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy, Marcel Ozuna, and Orlando Arcia. No other National League team comes close to the level of production up and down the lineup.

While the Braves cruise to their 6th consecutive National League East title, they may just set some new baseball records on offense along the way.