The Angels Are So Close Yet So Far

If you're a baseball fan, you want to see Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout in the postseason. I don’t care if you root for the Rangers or Astros or Mariners or another American League team that could knock the Angels out of a postseason berth. Baseball is better with the biggest stars on the biggest stage and there’s no bigger star in baseball right now than Shohei Ohtani. Mike Trout ain’t too bad either, although he’s having a down season, so far.

Heading into Monday’s action, the Angels are 42-37, good for third place in the AL West. They trail the division-leading Rangers by 6 games and the second-place Astros by 1/2 game. That same .5 difference separates the Astros and Angels in the wild card race, although both teams currently sit outside looking in at the Orioles, Yankees, and Blue Jays.

Unless things go seriously array for the Orioles, they appear to be a shoo-in for the postseason, either as the first wild card or the division winner, if the Rays hit a serious rough patch. If the Rangers win the AL West, that leaves the Astros, Angels, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners and Guardians battling it out for the last two wild card spots.

FanGraphs gives the Angels slightly more than 36% chance to make the postseason. Baseball Reference is less optimistic at 27%. Baseball Prospectus is in line with B-R. In the last week, Baseball Prospectus downgraded the Angels chances of making the postseason by 19%. (BPro is also pessimistic about the Orioles, so factor that into how much weight you put in their projections).

Let’s look at what’s going right and wrong for Los Angeles.

The Angels have scored the third-most runs in the AL (397) but that’s largely due to their record-breaking 25-1 thrashing of the Rockies at Coors Field Saturday night. The problem for the Angels is that they blew a late-inning lead in Friday night’s game to lose 7-4 and couldn’t muster much of an offense on Sunday and lost 4-3. The Rockies, in case you haven’t kept track, are 31-49—the worst record in the National League. When you are fighting for a postseason spot, you just can’t lose a series to the Rockies.

And for the most part, the Angels have taken care of business against the worst teams in MLB. They’ve taken 5 out of 7 from the A’s, 2 out of 3 from the Nationals, and 4 out of 6 from the Royals. They swept the Cardinals and the Cubs in 3-games series. Only the Marlins—who are sneaky good—have taken a 3-game series from the Angels.

The problem for the Angels is that they’ve already completed their games against the Rockies, Nationals, Royals and Cardinals for the season. They have yet to play the Rays, Braves, and Diamondbacks—three of the top four teams in the league right now—and have six game remaining against division rivals Astros and Rangers. They need to pile on wins quickly in order to withstand the difficulty of their schedule in the second half.

That won’t be easy given how banged up the Angels are right now. Infielder Gio Urshela is out for the season with a fractured pelvis. Rookies Logan O’Hoppe (catcher) and Zach Neto (shortstop) started the season with great fanfare but are both on the injured list indefinitely. In April, O’Hoppe tore the labrum in his left shoulder and underwent surgery. Neto has a strained oblique. Oft-injured third baseman Anthony Rendon is—guess what—injured again. This time it’s a wrist contusion.

All these injuries explain why the Angels made two trades last week to bolster their offense. The Angels sent two pitching prospects to the Mets in exchange for Eduardo Escobar and cash. Escobar was immediately slotted in at third base. And as a switch hitter, he’ll likely be an everyday player for Los Angeles. After the blow out win over the Rockies, the Angels traded for Colorado’s Mike Moustakas, sending yet another pitching prospect to the Rockies. Moustakas is likely to see a bunch of playing time at first base now that Jared Walsh was demoted to Triple-A. Walsh, an All-Star in 2021, was hitting 119/.244/.467 in 28 games.

Now it’s time for the Angels to make some moves to improve their pitching.

Shohei Ohtani anchors the rotation and has been good but not great on the mound this year. Yes, he still leads the AL in strikeouts-per-nine (11.83) but he also walks nearly 4 batters per nine and gives up 1.21 home runs per nine—the highest of his career. Reid Detmers, in only his second full season in the majors, has, arguably, been more effective than Ohtani, despite his 1-5 record in 13 starts.

But Patrick Sandoval has regressed from his stellar season in 2022 when he posted a 2.91 ERA in 27 starts. This season, Sandoval’s strikeout rate has plummeted, leading to a 1.47 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched), the highest in his career. Sandoval also fails to go deep in games. The same for Tyler Anderson.

All of that puts a strain on the Angels’ bullpen, already the weakest part of the Angels’ roster. Carlos Estévez has been excellent in the closer role with 19 saves and a 1.74 ERA. And Matt Moore had been dealing in high leverage situations but has been out since May with an oblique injury.

But the Angels’ relievers—even the good ones—have been un-clutch. Remember that FanGraphs’ clutch statistic measures how well a player performs in high leverage situations compared to how he otherwise performs. Overall, the bullpen has a -0.54 clutch rating—10th worst in the AL. Chris Devenski, who has taken a lot of innings Moore otherwise would’ve pitched, has been decent overall but terrible in high leverage situation. His clutch score is -0.82. Andrew Wantz is at -0.85. Jaime Barria is at -0.40.

Having a bunch of un-clutch relievers is how you end up with Tungsten Arm O’Doyle losses and lot of sad tweets. That’s why Los Angeles needs a shutdown arm to go with Estévez. So do a lot of teams, of course, and with the expanded playoffs, there are a lot of teams that think of themselves as buyers and not sellers as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. The Angels should continue to be aggressive now. Just like they made moves for Escobar and Moustakas, the Angels need to shore up the bullpen now.

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