The American League Is Just Fine

In her weekly newsletter for all free and paid subscribers, Molly Knight of The Long Game asked the question “Is the American League OK?” She lamented the lack of must-see players in the American League, other than Shohei Ohtani, because Aaron Judge is hurt. She noted that the Rays have fallen way off since starting the season 26-6 and that the American East teams—while all over .500—just don’t seem to be playing all that well. And she pointed out that if Ohtani were to get traded to a National League team, 7 of the top 9 players by fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) would be on NL teams.

I am here to tell you that the American League—save for the Oakland A’s and the Kansas City Royals—is just fine and, in some respects AL players and teams are producing better results than NL players and teams. I guess that caveat about the A’s and the Royals is important, because other American League teams get to pad their records by playing those awful, awful teams. (As of Monday morning, both the A’s and the Royals had just 28 wins; the A’s have played one more game than the Royals and have one more loss).

But with the balanced schedule in use this season, every MLB team gets to play the Royals and the A’s. National League teams have taken full advantage of that. Through Sunday, the A’s inter-league record is 9-18; the Royals’ inter-league record is 10-22. That 21-loss differential is more than the difference between the NL and the AL in inter-league play so far this season. After the Detroit Tigers beat the San Francisco Giants Monday morning in a make-up game, the NL had won 236 inter-league games against 219 losses.

Here are the American League teams in order of win-loss record through Sunday’s games.

Notice how every team with a winning record has a positive run differential. And the each team’s run differential roughly makes sense when you look at their win-loss record, except for the Orioles. Baltimore wins so many games with their other-worldly bullpen, leading to an 18-9 record in one-run games.

Other than the Rays and the Yankees, every AL team in postseason contention has played at least .500 ball in their last 10 games. The Rays are in a world of hurt, and as I wrote on Friday, are in danger of missing the playoffs if they don’t right the ship soon. The Yankees are . . . hanging in there without Aaron Judge on the strength of their pitching. Judge hurt his toe in a July 4 game against the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. After that game, the Yankees were 5 games over .500 at 43-38. Today, the Yankees are 6 games over .500, at 53-47.

By contrast, the National League standings show the Braves running away with everything. Atlanta has the best run differential in the NL at +148 and holds a 7-game edge over the Dodgers for the best record.

But wait, what’s happening with the Brewers and the Reds? Those two teams are vying for the NL Central division title and, failing that, a Wild Card spot, and have negative run differentials. The Brewers and Reds have won only two fewer games than the Dodgers and it looks like those 3 teams don’t even play the same sport! Like the Orioles, the Brewers excel at winning 1-run games (19-8 record). As do the Marlins, who are 22-9 in 1-run contests.

And then what do we make of the Cubs and Padres, who have losing records but pretty good, positive run differentials? The Padres are like the reverse-Marlins, with a 6-16 record in 1-run games. If the Padres and the Marlins played .500 ball in 1-runs games, the Padres would be 53-47 and in the postseason hunt and the Marlins would 47-54 and looking to sell at the deadline.

How can you look at these stats and say the American League is out of whack?

Now, let’s talk individual players.

Molly looked at the top 10 hitters in fWAR on Sunday—so, after Saturday’s games—and found it heavily weighted toward NL players. But today, after Sunday’s games, the top 10 players in fWAR are 5 AL players and 5 NL players.

The same is true for the next 10 hitters ranked by fWAR. Five NL players and 5 from the AL.

What about pitchers?

First, let’s look at the starters. There, 6 of the top 10 starters by fWAR play in the AL.

With relievers, it’s split right down the middle: 5 from the NL and 5 from AL (Aroldis Chapman was traded from the Royals to the Rangers).

Like Molly, I watch more National League games because I root for an NL team. She roots for the Dodgers. I root for the Giants. And like Molly, I watch a lot of Angels games because of Shohei Ohtani and in the last month or so, we’ve both watched a lot of Reds games too what new, amazing, crazy thing Elly De La Cruz will do on a baseball field.

But there are exciting players in the American League.

Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier put on an absolute show playing outfield defense for the Blue Jays, while Matt Chapman scoops up everything hit anywhere near third base. Watching Toronto is like watching a team put on a defensive clinic every single game (well, except for Vladimir Guerrero).

When he’s healthy, Corey Seager is as productive as Ohtani at the plate. Both players a wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 184. Seager’s batting .350/.413/.631 and plays a premium defensive position very well.

Felix Bautista, the Orioles’ closer, is sporting a 0.96 ERA in 49 innings pitched. His pitch mix is insanely good. Only 12 pitchers in major league history have posted an ERA below 1.00 in a season with at least 50 innings pitched.

Ohtani is running away with the home run title with 36, followed by the Braves’ Matt Olson with 32. Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox has the third-most home runs (28), while the Red Sox’ Rafael Devers and the Rangers Adolis Garcia each have 24.

Sure, Spencer Strider leads all pitchers with 189 strikeouts. But the next 4 pitchers on that list all play in AL: Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), Pablo Lopez (Twins), Ohtani, and Gerrit Cole (Yankees).

The Braves are playing like a super team and if I were a betting woman, I’d put money on the Braves to win it all this season. But that doesn’t mean the National League is running away with all the wins or all the fun. The balanced schedule has led to . . . a fair bit of balance. And as we all know, once you get to then postseason, anything can happen.