Shohei Ohtani Makes Predictable And Boring Decision, Signs With Dodgers

Unless you spent the last three days completely off the grid, you know the basic outlines of Shohei Ohtani’s decision to sign a free-agent contract with the Dodgers.

On Friday, the baseball world went berserk, tracking a private jet flying from Anaheim to Toronto, with purportedly reputable baseball writers confirming on Twitter/X that, in fact, Ohtani was on his way to Toronto. One Dodgers news site reported that Ohtani had reached a deal with the Blue Jays. All of that disappeared into thin air with reporting later in the day that Ohtani was in Southern California, not on his way to Toronto, and had not yet made a decision on his next team.

Around noon on Saturday, Los Angeles time, Ohtani announced on his Instagram that he would be joining the Dodgers. Jeff Passan of ESPN provided the details—$700 million over ten years, much of it deferred to give the Dodgers financial flexibility to sign more players and dodge around the competitive balance tax. In the short term, Ohtani will earn only $2 million per year—deferring $68 million in compensation to latter years of the contract.

Seven hundred million dollars.

It’s a staggering sum, although as Passan notes, the present value of the contract—with the deferrals—is much lower. Perhaps a mere $550 million or less.

Is Ohtani worth that kind of money?

Yes. 100%. Absolutely.

How do I know that? Because the Dodgers agreed to pay him $700 million, so that’s his market value. Free-market capitalism, right?

I don’t want to hear about how Ohtani’s average annual salary exceeds the Opening Day payroll of the A’s or the Orioles. That’s the kind of nonsense that MLB owners use to turn you against the megastars that entertain us nearly every day for six consecutive months. All but four of the 30 MLB owners has a personal net worth (or in the case of the Braves and the Blue Jays, corporate worth) of more than $1 billion. 

Every MLB team could spend a lot more than do on player salaries. They simply choose not to. Don’t hold that against Ohtani.

For all of the secrecy and last-minute intrigue, Ohtani signing with the Dodgers was the most obvious choice. Ohtani already lives in Southern California. Outside of Honolulu, the Los Angeles metro area has the largest Japanese-American population. The Dodgers ownership group is worth billions and billions of dollars and they have a track record of spending it on the team.

And Ohtani wants to win.

Now here’s where things get interesting.

What does it mean Ohtani wants to win? Does he want to play on a team that wins more games than it loses in the regular season? Does he want to play on a team that consistently makes the postseason? Does he want to play on a team with a track record for winning the World Series? In this century?

Clearly, it’s not the last one, because then Ohtani would have signed with the Cardinals or the Giants or the Red Sox or the Astros.

Sure, the Dodgers won** a World Series in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. But the Dodgers have also suffered heartbreaking postseason loss after heartbreaking postseason loss during the team’s current 11-year streak of regular season excellence that’s consisted of 10 National League West titles and a 106-win season the only year they didn’t win the NL West, thanks to the 107-win Giants.

Will Ohtani be the player that reverses the Dodgers’ postseason misfortune?

Perhaps. A lot depends on how well Ohtani pitches in 2025 and beyond after a full recovery from his second Tommy John surgery in September. The doctor who performed the surgery, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, told ABC News that Ohtani would be ready to hit "without any restrictions come opening day of 2024" and resume his role as a two-way player by 2025.

There’s a big difference between pitching without restrictions and performing on the mound at the level Ohtani has since returning from his first Tommy Surgery in 2019. In the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons combined, Ohtani posted a 31.4% strikeout rate, the highest among qualified American League starters, and a .197 batting average against, the lowest among qualified AL starters.

There is a growing list of MLB pitchers to undergo Tommy John surgery twice and so far, the results are mixed, as noted here by MLB.com and here by the The Athletic. Nathan Eovaldi—a key reason the Rangers won the World Series this season—looks to be the best success story.

Ohtani will have a front-row seat for his now-teammate Walker Buehler’s return in 2024 from his second TJ procedure. Dodgers starter Dustin May also had a second TJ in 2023 and may be ready to return at the end of the 2024 season.

Indeed, as it stands right now, FanGraphs lists Buehler as the Dodgers’ top starting pitcher on the team’s depth chart.

Everyone expects the Dodgers to sign at least one free agent starting pitcher before spring training and with their resources—and the deferrals in Ohtani’s contracts—perhaps LA will sign two starters.

They need to.

Because even a lineup stacked with three of the top position players in the National League as measured by fWAR isn’t guaranteed postseason success.

Just ask the 2023 Atlanta Braves.