My X-Factors For The World Series

And then there were two.

The World Series begins tonight at 8 pm EDT/5 pm PDT at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. All games will be played at that time. Games 3, 4 and 5 (if necessary) will take place at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

The Texas Rangers versus the Arizona Diamondbacks isn’t the World Series we expected. It may not be the World Series we wanted to see once the postseason began. But it is the World Series we have. And with the long baseball-less winter only 9 days away, at most, let’s enjoy the baseball we have left, even if the matchup feels disappointing.

Yes, the Diamondbacks snuck into the postseason as the last National League Wild Card team with an 84-78 record. Yes, the Rangers’ and the Diamondbacks’ combined regular season winning percentage of .537 is the lowest ever for teams meeting in the World Series. Yes, MLB might want to think about tweaking the postseason format to give the best regular season teams more advantages, like re-seeding the teams after each round. If we’d had re-seeding this year, the Diamondbacks would have played the Braves in the NLDS and the Phillies would have faced off against the Dodgers. Whether that would have produced a more pleasing World Series matchup is anyone’s guess.

But let’s not take anything away from what the Rangers and Diamondbacks accomplished to get to World Series. The Rangers are 8-0 on the road this postseason after going 40-41 on the road during the regular season. Perhaps the Astros helped out with that because Houston simply lost its ability to win at Minute Maid Park. But Texas also took the Wild Card Series by winning two games at Tropicana Field and the Division Series by winning two at Camden Yards, when both the Rays and the Orioles were outstanding home teams in 2023.

For their part, the Diamondbacks also won their first four road games—two in Milwaukee to beat the Brewers in the Wild Card Series and two at Dodger Stadium to take a 2-0 NLDS lead over the Dodgers. And when push came to shove in the NLCS, Arizona tamed the Phillies and the loud and exuberant Citizens Bank Park crowd in NLCS Games 6 and 7 to win the National League Pennant.

However these teams arrived to the World Series, they present an intriguing matchup. Both teams feature young players becoming stars on the biggest stage. Both teams have super smart managers who excel at in-game strategy.

So let’s dive in and talk about who is likely to have the biggest impact on the outcome of the World Series.

Here are my World Series X-Factors.

• How will Rangers manager Bruce Bochy use his starting pitchers?

The Diamondbacks have three good starting pitchers in Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and rookie phenom Brandon Pfaadt. The Rangers have two good starting pitchers in Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery and one grizzled but somewhat limited future Hall of Famer in Max Scherzer.

In Game 1, Gallen will take the mound for Arizona. Eovaldi will start for Texas. Gallen last pitched in Game 5 of the NLCS last Saturday, so he’ll be pitching on 6 days rest. Eovaldi last pitched in Game 6 of the ALCS last Sunday, so he’ll be pitching on regular (5 days rest).

Bochy wisely used Montgomery in the critical middle innings of ALCS Game 7 to keep the Astros from staging a comeback. That game was on Monday night. If Montgomery pitches on regular rest, he would start Game 2. But Bochy hasn’t announced a Game 2 starter yet.

There’s no reason to think Montgomery is injured or will be limited in any way. This is just Bruce Bochy thinking 5 steps ahead and waiting to see which team wins Game 1 before deciding whether to go with Scherzer or Montgomery for Game 2. If the Rangers win Game 1, my guess is that Scherzer faces Kelly, the announced D’Backs starter for Game 2. If the Rangers lose Game 1, Bochy likely starts Montgomery in Game 2 and saves Scherzer for Game 3 against announced D’Backs starter Pfaadt.

Game 4 would be a bullpen game for both teams. That scenario very much favors the D’Backs.

Which leads us to the next X-Factor.

• Will the Rangers hitters figure out the D’Backs bullpen?

So far this postseason, the Arizona bullpen is 5-0 with a 2.94 ERA in 49 innings pitched across 12 games. It’s a remarkable turnaround for a team ranked 17th in bullpen fWAR in the first half of the season.

GM Mike Hazen knew he had to plug those holes and he did by trading away Andrew Chafin, obtaining Paul Sewald from the Mariners, and picking up Ryan Thompson after the Rays designated him for assignment. Injuries to Scott McGough, Drey Jamison, and Austin Adams forced Arizona to call up rookie Andrew Saalfrank, who can be wild but is effective against left-handed batters when he’s around the strike zone, and to give more playing time to Luis Frias.

Hazen turned a weakness into a strength that could make all the difference in the World Series.

Kevin Ginkel, who typically pitches the 8th inning, and closer Paul Sewald are the rock of the bullpen. Neither has allowed a run in the postseason.

There is some softness in Arizona’s middle relief corps—lefties Joe Mantiply, Kyle Nelson, and Saalfrank and righties Frias, Thompson, Miguel Castro, and Ryne Nelson. Saalfrank walks too many batters. Thompson gives up a lot of hits. As a whole, the D’Backs bullpen has given up only 2 home runs this postseason. That’s a remarkable figure given that they faced two of the best home run hitting teams in the National League in the the Dodgers and the Phillies.

Still, the Rangers have a deep lineup with no easy outs. Texas hit .265/.344/.481 with 22 home runs in the first three rounds of the playoffs—by far the most productive offense in the postseason. They walked more, struck out less, and scored 17 more runs than the D’Backs over the same number of games.

How that very good offense fares against the D’Backs bullpen could be the deciding factor in the World Series.

• Will the Rangers bullpen implode?

Facts are facts. The Rangers bullpen is not good. It wasn’t good in the regular season and, as a whole, it hasn’t been that much better in the postseason. In 48.1 innings pitched, the Texas bullpen is 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA. That includes Jordan Montgomery’s heroic 2 1/3 innings of no-run ball in Game 7. Overall, Texas relievers have walked 25 batters, hit 2 batters, and given up 7 home runs in the postseason.

Josh Sborz is the consistent bright spot in the 7th or 8th inning, depending on how much stomach Bochy has for Aroldis Chapman’s wildness and unpredictability. Jose Leclerc had been locking down the 9th inning until giving up the 3-run home run to Jose Altuve in Game 5 of the ALCS. Even with a big lead in Game 7, Bochy still used Leclerc to get the last 3 outs and Leclerc coughed up a home run. Perhaps that was from overuse and Leclerc will return to form after getting 4 days’ rest.

The middle relief is awful. Will Smith, Dane Dunning, and Chris Stratton all have postseason ERAs above 6.00. Sure, those are small sample sizes, but they are consistent with what those relievers gave Bochy in the regular season.

I’m expecting Bochy to rely more on lefty Cody Bradford in the World Series, particularly against left-handed batters Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, and Pavin Smith. He really doesn’t have much choice, given his limited bullpen options.

• Which Corbin Carroll will we see?

After solid play in the Wild Card and Division Series, Carroll disappeared offensively in Games 1-6 of the NLCS. The D’Backs rookie outfielder recorded just 3 hits in 23 at-bats and walked once. He had 0 stolen bases. Granted he didn’t have many opportunities, but Carroll swiped 54 bags in the regular seasons.

Carroll woke up just in time.

In Game 7, he went 3-for-4 game in Game 7 with 2 stolen bases, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored. But for that offensive outburst, we might very well be watching the Phillies take on the Rangers in the World Series.

Carroll powered the D’Backs offense this season from the leadoff spot. Manager Torey Lovullo moved him to second during his NLCS slump, with NLCS MVP Ketel Marte leading off. Whether in the 1 spot or 2 spot, Arizona needs Carroll to get on base and cause havoc on the base paths.

• Will Marcus Semien snap out of it?

As good as the Rangers’ postseason offense has been, their leadoff batter has contributed almost nothing to the cause. Marcus Semien’s postseason slash in 58 plate appearances is .192/.276/.231. Zero home runs. Zero stolen bases. 2 RBI.

Semien had more hits (185) than any other American League hitter in 2023, making his postseason drop-off quite surprising. The Rangers absolutely need Semien to get going because ALCS MVP Adolis Garcia can hit only so many massive, game-defining home runs in October.