My X-Factors For The National League Championship Series

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies will kick off the National League Championship Series tonight at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. First pitch will be thrown at 8:07 pm EDT/5:07 pm PDT. Zac Gallen will start for the D’Backs; Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies.

This is the third trip to the NLCS for the D’Backs since the team’s creation in 1998 and the eleventh for the Phillies since divisional play began in 1969. The teams have not previously met in postseason.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson and D’Backs manager Torey Lovullo both began their professional baseball careers with the Detroit Tigers organization but their paths never crossed in the majors when they were players. Lovullo debuted in the majors with the Tigers in 1988, had short stints with Yankees, Angels, Mariners, A’s, and the then-Indians. He finished his playing career with the Phillies in 1998. Thomson never made it the majors as a player.

The only player on the NLCS rosters to play for both teams is starter Taijuan Walker. He was with the D’Backs from 2017-2019. This is his first season with the Phillies.

Zac Gallen grew up in the Philly suburbs and his mom and brother are insane Phillies fans. Well, they were insane Philly fans.

We do have what I believe is the first postseason matchup between two starters named Zac(k), even if Zac Gallen spells his name without the k and Zack Wheeler spells his name with it. Zac and Zack faced off once in the regular season, on September 10, 2019. That was Gallen’s rookie year, when he was traded from the Marlins to the D’Backs for Jazz Chisolm Jr., and Wheeler’s final season with the Mets. New York won the game. Wheeler got the win; Gallen took the loss.

There’s just not that much history between these franchises, the players, or the coaches—contrary to the Rangers-Astros match up in the ALCS.

We’ll have to look to the games themselves for the series storylines.

For now, let’s dive into X-Factors that I believe will most significantly affect the outcome of the series.

• Will Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto contain the D’Backs’ running game? Will D’Backs catcher Gabby Moreno contain the Phillies’ running game?

We think of the D’Backs as being the younger, more athletic team, but the Phillies’ average player age this season was 27.8, while the D’Backs average player age was 28.6.

Still, thanks largely to rookie Corbin Carroll, the D’Backs stole more bases than the Phillies—166 v. 141. And FanGraphs measure the D’Backs’ overall base running (steals, taking extra bases on hits to the outfield and fly outs) at 8.9 fWAR, compared to 2.7 fWAR for the Phillies.

This season, Realmuto had a faster pop time than Moreno (1.83 secs v. 1.90 sec), according to Statcast, but Moreno threw out 48% of all runners attempting to steal second base. Realmuto threw out only 22%.

All eyes will be Carroll and Phillies shortstop Trea Turner when they’re on first base. Turner hasn’t been caught stealing yet this season—he was 30-for-30 in the regular season and, so far, he’s 4-for-4 in the postseason. Carroll stole 54 bases in the regular season and was caught only 5 times. In the postseason, Carroll has 2 steals and 1 caught stealing.

• Will the D’Backs keep up their postseason home run-hitting barrage? (I fully expect the Phillies will).

In the regular season, the Phillies hit 54 more home runs than the D’Backs, but in the postseason, each team has hit 13. Phillies Game 2 starter, Aaron Nola, has been susceptible to the long ball this season, giving up 1.49 homers per 9 innings pitched. So that’s something to keep an eye on in Game 2, which will be played at the homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

The D’Backs will feature several pitchers that gave up more than 1.5 home runs per 9 innings this season: rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt, reliever Ryne Nelson, and closer Paul Sewald.

• Will Ranger Suárez dominate the D’Backs the way he dominated the Braves?

The Phillies have used Ranger Suárez as their third starter in the postseason. He pitched Game 1 and Game 4 of the NLDS and out-dueled Braves’ ace Spencer Strider in both games. In total, Suárez’s thrown 8 2/3 innings in the postseason and given up just 4 hits and 1 run.

But several D’Backs players have hit Suárez hard in their prior face-offs. Yes, the sample sizes are small but still worth watching. Ketel Marte is 6-for-15 off Suárez; Christian Walker is 5-for-15 with 2 doubles; Evan Longoria is 2-for-7 with 1 home run.

• Which bullpen will crack?

The Phillies bullpen outperformed the D’Backs’ pen in the regular season but it’s been a different story in the playoffs. Relievers on both teams have been excellent so far this postseason. Eight Phillies relievers have combined to throw 18 2/3 innings. They’ve allowed only 3 runs on 8 walks, 15 hits, and 14 strikeouts. Eight D’Backs relievers have combined to throw 20 1/3 innings. They’ve allowed 4 runs on 16 hits, 8 walks and 23 strikeouts.

Track records suggest the D’Backs bullpen will crack first, but if the first two rounds of the postseason have taught us anything, it’s that track records don’t equal destiny in the postseason.

• Will any pre- or post-game player comments find their way to a t-shirt in the opposing team’s clubhouse?

By now, you’re all familiar with the Orlando Arcia-Bryce Harper smack talk heard ‘round the baseball world. In case you missed the epilogue to story, here’s Phillies’ rookie reliever Orion Kerkering wearing a special t-shirt during the Phillies NLDS celebration that his friend made for him before Game 4.

I wasn’t able to watch Game 1 of the ALCS between the Rangers and the Astros because the friends I stayed with while visiting my daughter for Parents Weekend have cut the cord from cable and regular broadcast TV and my service provider (Xfinity) said I was blacked out from watching it on my laptop.

I listened to the game on the MLB At-Bat app and watched the highlights after the game. Just as we all expected—a pitchers’ duel with Jordan Montgomery coming out on top of Justin Verlander.

Game 2 starts today at 4:37 pm EDT/1:37 pm PDT. I predict more offense from the Astros tonight (I know, really going out on a limb there). Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Martin Maldonado have hit Rangers’ Game 2 starter Nathan Eovaldi hard over the years. Framber Valdez takes the mound for the Astros.

We’ll see if past is prologue.