My X-Factors For The American League Championship Series

The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros meet for the first time ever in the postseason when the American League Championship Series begins tonight at 8:15 pm EDT/7:15 CDT/5:15 PDT. Even before the first pitch is thrown, there are storylines galore for this series.

Former Giants manager Bruce Bochy versus former Giants manager Dusty Baker. Former Tigers and Mets teammates Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in opposing dugouts with a World Series berth on the line—and perhaps in a pitching duel is Scherzer is cleared to join the Rangers’ ALCS roster. Corey Seager, formerly with the Dodgers, seeking revenge against an Astros team that cheated their way to a World Series Championship against the Dodgers in 2017. Nathan Eovaldi pitching for the Rangers against the team he rooted for growing up in Alvin, Texas.

Both teams ended the regular season at 90-72. The Astros won 9 of the 13 games the teams played this season. That gave Houston the tiebreaker, making the Astros the AL Division champs and giving them home-field advantage in the series. But the Astros were a better road team this season. Their road record was 51-30; their home record was only 39-42. The Rangers played better at home than the road. Texas posted a 50-31 home record and a 40-41 road record. So they’ll both struggle at Minute Maid Field? And both play well at Globe Life Field?

There’s no question that the current Astros players have tremendous postseason experience. This is the 7th-consecutive season the Astros are playing in the ALCS. José Altuve and Alex Bregman have played for Houston in all six previous ALCS. Martin Maldonado’s played in four; Kyle Tucker and Verlander have played in four; Yordan Alvarez in three. And as the good folks at the Astros-themed newsletter Orange Fire have noted, the Astros are 56-34 in the postseason since 2017. These players have experience winning in the postseason.

Where the Astros have experience, the Rangers have youth and athleticism. Rangers rookie outfielder Evan Carter turned 21 in August and is the youngest player on any of the four remaining teams. But Carter seems completely unfazed by the postseason pressure. In 21 plate appearances in the Wild Card Series and Division Series, Carter batted .429/.619/.857. Of his 6 hits, 4 are for extra-bases. Plus he has 6 walks, tied for 3rd-most in the postseason after teammate Corey Seager (11) and Bryce Harper (7).

On paper, the teams are evenly matched. I give the Astros the edge in pitching and the Rangers the edge in hitting and defense. What will make the difference in the series? Here are my X-Factors:

• Will Marcus Semien be productive at the plate?

My guess: yes.

Semien greased the wheel for the Rangers offense all season, hitting out of the leadoff spot, ahead of Corey Seager. Semien played all 162 games and batted .276/.348/.478. He hit 29 home runs and 40 doubles. His 185 total hits were a career high.

Semien struggled in the Wild Card Series against the Rays and the Division Series against the Orioles, going 4-for-23 with 2 walks. The Rangers have won 5 straight postseason games without big contributions from Semien, but that task gets harder against a deeper and more experienced Astros pitching staff.

Take a look at Semien’s career numbers against current Astros pitchers. If history is a guide, Semien may be primed for a big series.

• Will Max Scherzer pitch and, if so, will he be effective?

My guess: Who knows.

As of this writing, late on Saturday night, the Rangers have yet to announce their ALCS roster. So we don’t know if Max Scherzer will be on the roster and, if so, what role he’ll play. We do know the Rangers have announced Jordan Montgomery will start Game 1 and Nathan Eovaldi will start Game 2. After that, there are a lot of unknowns.

If he’s healthy, Scherzer would be big upgrade over Andrew Heaney or Dane Dunning for start in Game 3. And if Scherzer pitches Game 3, Bruce Bochy can piggyback Heaney and Dunning in Game 4 like he did, successfully, in the first game against the Orioles in the Division Series. Without Scherzer, Bochy will have to cover Games 3 and 4 with Heaney, Dunning, and a bunch of bullpen arms.

• Will Bochy out-manage Dusty Baker?

My guess: Yes.

Baker finally won the World Series as a manger last season with the Astros. It was a long time coming after Baker came within 8 outs of the winning the World Series with the Giants in 2002 when he took starter Russ Ortiz out of the game with 2 on and 1 out in the 7th inning of Game 6 with the Giants leading 5-0. He handed Ortiz the game ball to take with him and then all hell broke loose. Yes, I’m still bitter all these years later. But I digress.

Bochy managed the Giants to a World Series Championship in 2014 with one great starting pitcher (Madison Bumgarner) and whole lot of who knows what in late-career Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson, and Ryan Vogelsong. Bochy can mix and match and work bullpen magic the postseason better than any manager I’ve seen. Just look at what the Rangers’ bullpen accomplished so far this postseason (16 2/3 IP, 18 Ks, 2.16 ERA) after an absolutely miserable performance during the regular season.

• Will Yordan Alvarez continue to destroy all pitching?

My guess: Yes.

Alvarez had a monster Division Series, going 7-for-16 with 4 home runs. The only Twins starter to keep him in check was Pablo Lopez. Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi are not Pablo Lopez. Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning are not Pablo Lopez. Coming-off-the-injured-list Max Scherzer is not Pablo Lopez.

Alvarez’s postseason play is no surprise after an excellent season at the plate: .293/.407/.583 with 31 home runs and 24 doubles.

He’s ready for a big ALCS.

Enjoy ALCS Game 1 tonight. I’ll have my NLCS X-Factors newsletter to you on Monday.