My National League No Stars

Last Wednesday, I debuted my American League No Star List™️. Today, I focus on the National League.

As I wrote last week, my analysis doesn’t simply point to the players who have accumulated the highest negative fWAR on their team so far. It’s not just a matter of seriously underperforming; the question is which players are really hurting their team, on their own and relative to preseason expectations.

I am using the same criteria as with the American League List. The position players on my No Star List™️ have played in 75% of their team’s games. The starting pitchers have made at least 10 starts and the relief pitchers have thrown at least 25 innings.

So there could’ve been one trip to the injured list for a minor ailment or just rest days. I stayed away from players who have been to the minors and back several times this season because those guys are, by definition, replacement level players and not expected to contribute all that much to their team. And I tried not to just point fingers at guys on the downslope of their careers.

In alphabetical order by team, here is my National League No Star List™️ for 2023.

Arizona Diamondbacks

If you’re a designated hitter and your batting average a week before the All-Star Break is .190, you can expect to find yourself on my No Star List. Congratulations Pavin Smith, that’s you. Things are so bad for Smith that the D’Backs sent him to Triple-A to try to get right for the second half of the season.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves swept the Marlins over the weekend, and with the Rays playing so-so lately, Atlanta now owns the best record in the majors. The Braves are stacked offensively; there is not a weak link in the lineup. And even with the pitching, you have to bore in with a strong microscope to find the No Star. Sorry A.J. Minter, but you’ve had 8 meltdown innings per FanGraphs and your clutch score is -0.46, the worst on the team.

Chicago Cubs

Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele are a great 1-2 punch at the top of the Cubs’ rotation. James Taillon is pulling up the rear at the back end. In 14 starts, Taillon is 2-6 with a 7.07 ERA. He’s giving up nearly 2 home runs per nine innings. That is a recipe for disaster. It’s hard to see the Cubs making a run in the second half if Taillon takes the ball once every 5 games.

Cincinnati Reds

Aside from the insane greatness of Shohei Ohtani, the Reds’ resurgence is my favorite storyline of the season. The Reds’ rookies—Elly De La Cruz. Matt McLain. Spencer Steer, Andrew Abbott—are performing like seasoned vets and seasoned vet Joey Votto is back from shoulder surgery and loving the kids’ vibe.

Not everything is going well in the Queen City, though. Starting pitcher Luke Weaver has taken the ball from David Bell for 13 starts and it has not gone well. Like James Taillon for the Cubs, Weaver is giving up nearly 2 home runs per nine innings, which has led to a 6.96 ERA. Reds will need to add a veteran starting pitcher to the trade deadline.

Colorado Rockies

Where to start with one of the worst teams in the league? There are too many bad performances to choose from.

Sorry Jurickson Profar, you’re the one. The Rockies signed Profar during Spring Training and he’s played 74 of Colorado’s 86 games, mostly in left field. Playing outfield in the wide open spaces of Coors Field is not for the faint of heart or for those with a clanky glove. As measured by Defensive Runs Saved, Profar is the fifth worst outfield defender in the majors. Couple that with a .712 OPS (on base plus slugging) and you get a No Star.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are having a weird season, especially in the bullpen. Dodgers insider Molly Knight has written that the bullpen was the worst in last 100 years of Dodgers baseball until the last 10 days or so. A chief culprit in LA’s bullpen meltdowns is Yency Almonte.

According to FanGraphs, Almonte is responsible for 6 meltdown outings and has a negative clutch rating. Add in his 5.45 ERA and you get a relief pitcher that has been worse than replacement level in the first half of the season.

Miami Marlins

The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner is going through some stuff. Sandy Alcantara is just not the same pitcher as he was last season. The smart folks at FanGraphs believe that Alcantara’s changeup is less effective and is causing most of his problems. It’s difficult to believe that the Marlins are in first place in the wild card standings with Alcantara posting a 4.93 ERA. If Alcantara rights the ship, the Marlins will be even more formidable in the second half.

Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers shortstop Willy Adames isn’t hitting for average or for power. His .203/.289/.373 slash has led Adames to the second-worst Offensive fWAR among regular National League shortstops. To be fair, Christian Yelich is the only Brewers position player doing much on damage on offense. And Adames has been playing very good defense. But he needs to get his offense going if the Brewers are going to have any chance in the postseason.

New York Mets

A lot of things have gone wrong for the Mets this season. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander haven’t lived up to lofty expectations. The offense is sputtering. But it’s the bullpen that’s been the biggest disaster. Collectively, Mets relief pitchers have accumulated -0.7 fWAR, making them the only bullpen that’s performed below replacement level.

Jeff Brigham is Example A of what’s gone wrong with the Mets’ bullpen this season. Brigham has thrown 29 2/3 innings across 31 games and given up 18 runs. He’s had more meltdown innings (8) than shutdown innings (6) leading to a -0.87 clutch rating. If you’re a Mets fan and the Mets have a lead, you do not want Brigham anywhere near the mound. That’s the definition of a No Star.

Philadelphia Phillies

Is it too early to call Trea Turner’s 11-year/$300 million contract with the Phillies a bust? Philadelphia signed Turner over the winter to that expensive deal and the shortstop just has not delivered the goods this season. After watching Turner tear it up for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, I was expecting a big year for Turner in Philly. But he’s hitting just .249/.304/.383 with 8 home runs—well off his career averages in every category. The Phillies are making a push to get back to the postseason and need Turner to find his form quickly.

Pittsburgh Pirates

When the Pirates were leading the NL Central back in April, they were doing it with stellar pitching and just enough offense to win. The Bucs fell back to earth in May and June and are now 39-44. Having just enough offense isn’t good enough anymore.

One reason why second baseman Ji Hwan Bae is my No Star. In 76 games, he’s batting .238/.301/.308. It’s not easy to stay in the major leagues with a .308 slugging percentage. Indeed, his performance has been below replacement level so far. And his defense is nothing to write home about.

San Diego Padres

Like the Mets, the Padres made a big splash over the winter by signing free agent Xander Boegarts to play shortstop for the next 11 years for $280 million and extending third baseman Manny Machado for another 11 years for $350 million. San Diego also locked down starter Yu Darvish through the 2029 season for $108 million.

To say the Padres are underperforming is an understatement. The team is 38-46 and in fourth place in the competitive NL West. As I wrote last week, the Padres as a whole have been unlucky and un-clutch. But if Machado were producing at the plate close to what he did over the last 3 seasons, the Padres would be in much better shape. So Manny Machado is my No Star.

San Francisco Giants

In the first month of the season, the Giants had the worst bullpen in the National League. Now, they have the best, as measured by fWAR. That’s an incredible turnaround for the relievers—except one: Sean Manaea.

The Giants signed Manaea to be a starter/opener/long reliever and he’s played all three roles. He has not be particularly good at any of them. San Francisco is 1-5 in Manaea’s starts. He has 1 blown save and has 2 holds. His 4.13 ERA reflects his propensity to walk batters and give up home runs way too frequently.

St. Louis Cardinals

Replacing Cardinals legend Yadier Molina is no easy feat, so perhaps it’s unfair to point fingers at catcher Willson Contreras for my No Star list. But facts are facts and Contreras has been a big disappointment for St. Louis. The Cardinals signed Contreras to a 5 year/$87.5 million before this season. The three-time All Star is hitting .214/.305/.366 with 8 home runs—a sizable drop in overall production at the plate and especially in power, compared to prior seasons.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals are a mess but thanks to the Rockies, don’t have the worst record in the NL. Still, Washington is rebuilding/treading water while the Lerner family decides whether to sell the team, to whom, and for how much. GM Mike Rizzo, who built the 2019 World Series Championship team, doesn’t have money to spend, and has been trading Nationals stars the last few seasons to bring in prospects.

The team is full of No Stars. Picking just one isn’t easy. So, as I did with the A’s last week, I’m passing on naming any one Nationals player to my No Star List.™️