My 2023 Hall Of Fame Ballot, If I Had a Vote

Programming Note

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Thanks for sticking with me through this uncertain period.

In the meantime, I’ve become more active on Bluesky, a kinder, gentler Twitter/X. I’d love to see more baseball fans there. Below are five Bluesky invite codes—first come, first served.

My Hall of Fame Ballot

A few weeks ago, I explained the voting process for the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Voters are limited to two categories of baseball writers:

• Members of the Baseball Writers Association of America who have covered baseball on a regular basis for 10+ consecutive years and are still active baseball writers; and

• BBWAA members who previously received a Hall of Fame vote but have not been active baseball writers over the last 10 years.

In other words, there is a 10-year grace period for former BBWAA members who were active writers but no longer cover baseball on a regular basis. After 10 years, the former scribe loses his or her Hall of Fame vote. That change was made in 2015 after a fair bit of public criticism that old-time sports writers who hadn’t covered baseball for many years were voting on players they’d never seen play the game.

Last year, 389 BBWAA members cast Hall of Fame ballots. (Fewer than 20 of those voters were women.)

I have never been a member of the BBWAA and probably never will be. That hasn’t stopped me from having well-formed baseball thoughts and opinions. So here’s an explanation of who I would vote for on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot and why.

Here’s the ballot.

Baseball-Reference lists the 26 players on the ballot in descending order by the percentage of votes they received in last year’s voting. B-R’s chart has all sorts of other helpful information, including each player’s career bWAR (Wins Above Replacement), the bWAR each player accumulated over his 7-year peak, and each player’s JAWS rating. JAWS was by created by Jay Jaffe and stands for Jaffe WAR Score System—it evaluates players in comparison to Hall of Famers at the same position.

Hall of Fame voters may vote for up 10 players on the ballot, but not more. If I had a vote this year, I would vote for 9 players on the ballot. I explain each vote below, but first, a few overall observations.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, I believe in a big Hall of Fame:

So, while I use JAWS as a guide, I don’t hew strictly to a comparison of players on the current ballot compared to players at that same position who are already in the Hall of Fame. Doing so just perpetuates the level of exclusivity that I oppose.

I also believe it’s a Hall of Fame, not a Hall of Ethics. The character clause has been used over the years to keep out some of the greatest players ever (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens) while other more unsavory players (Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker) are enshrined in bronze in the Plaque Room.

In my view, the very best players should be in the Hall of Fame, with asterisks or text on their plaques that put their accomplishments in context—historical and otherwise.

With that background, here is what my ballot would look like, if I had one.

Carlos Beltrán

Only five players in MLB history hit more than 400 home runs and stole more than 300 bases in their careers. Carlos Beltrán is one of them. The other four are Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, and Andre Dawson.

That, alone, makes Beltrán deserving of the Hall of Fame.

Beltrán made his MLB debut with the Royals at the end of the 1998 season. His first full season was 1999, when he was named the American League Rookie of the Year. Over his 20 seasons, Beltrán was an All-Star nine times—seven times for the National League while playing for the Mets and Cardinals, and twice in the American League, when playing for the Astros and Yankees. Beltrán won a Gold Glove Award and a Sliver Slugger Award in 2006, 2007, and 2008—all with the Mets.

Wins Above Replacement is a cumulative stat, so the longer you play, the more WAR you accumulate, assuming you perform above replacement level. In his 20 seasons from 1998 to 2017, Beltrán accumulated 67.8 fWAR. That’s the 7th-best fWAR among positions players for those seasons.

The only players with a higher cumulative fWAR from 1998-2017 are Álex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Adrián Beltré, Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones, and Miguel Cabrera.

Beltrán was an all-around star offensive player. He hit for average (.279), he got on base (.350 on-base %)), and he hit for power (435 home runs/.486 slugging %). He stole 312 bases in his career—15th most among all position players during his playing years.

Beltrán was a very good defensive outfielder in the first 10 years of his career. Like many others, he showed a marked decline in speed, agility and throwing as he aged. Even so, he ended his career with a net positive defensive fWAR. Combined with his offensive numbers, he’s a Hall of Famer in my book.

Adrián Beltré

Adrián Beltré is 16th on MLB’s career home run list with 477 dingers. He played elite defense at third base for most of his career. He’s a no doubt Hall of Famer.

In addition to his 477 home runs, Beltré slashed .286/.339/.480 and stole 121 bases in his career.

Beltré played from 1998 to 2018. He began the same year as Beltrán and played one year more. The four-time All Star won five Gold Glove Awards and five Silver Slugger Awards. He finished in the top 10 in MVP voting six times.

During the 21 years he played in the majors, Beltré accumulated 83.8 fWAR. Only A-Rod and Pujols posted higher fWARs during that same period. Yes, a lot of Beltré’s fWAR derives from his spectacular defense. That was also true of Brooks Robinson and Scott Rolen, other great defensive third basemen who entered the Hall partly—if not mostly—on the value of the defense.

Andruw Jones

Jones was the best defensive outfielder in the majors for the entirety of his career by a wide margin. He should be in the Hall of Fame.

Jones debuted in 1996 with the Braves. He played 12 seasons in Atlanta before bouncing around his final five seasons among the Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, and Yankees. Jones retired after the 2012 season.

Even when you look at the 20-year period from 1996 to 2015, Jones’ defensive WAR rating on FanGraphs is more than twice that of the next best defensive outfielder. Jones accumulated 278.8 defensive fWAR. The next best among outfielders is Mike Cameron at 128.9.

Jones was a one-man highlight reel of the best dives, jumps, leaps, and catches in MLB over 17 seasons. Among centerfielders, only Willie Mays won more Gold Glove Awards (11) than Andruw Jones (10).

But Jones wasn’t just a great defender. He hit 434 career home runs while compiling a .254/.337/.486 slash. Barry Bonds is the only MLB outfielder with a higher fWAR (combining defense, offense, and baserunning) than Jones over the course of Jones’ career.

That’s deserving of the Hall of Fame.

Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer played 15 MLB seasons, all with his hometown Minnesota Twins. For most of that time, Mauer was the complete package: a solid defender at the most demanding defensive position (catcher) who could really rake.

Catchers don’t play everyday, so Mauer’s counting stats—number of hits, runs, home runs, and RBI—may not look all that impressive compared to other players who played when Mauer did—from 2004-2018.

But during that time period, Mauer did post the 10th highest fWAR (53.0) in the majors—a figure largely driven by his offense. Mauer posted a career .306/.388/.439 slash.

Mauer was a six-time AL All-Star. He was named the AL MVP in 2009.

In my book, he’s a Hall of Famer.

Manny Ramirez

Manny Ramirez was a prodigious offensive force over his 19-year MLB career. The 12-time All-Star hit 555 home runs—good for 15th-best in MLB history. Couple that with a .312/.411/.585 career slash and you have a no-doubt Hall of Famer.

Ramirez debuted in 1993 with Cleveland but was still a rookie in 1994, when he came in second in voting for the American League Rookie of the Year. (I bet very few of you can name the player who beat out Ramirez for ROY. He was a flash in the pan.)

In 1999, Ramirez led the American League in slugging (.663), OPS (1.105), and RBI (165) and placed third in the AL MVP voting behind Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez and Pedro Martinez and tied with Roberto Alomar. All three are in the Hall of Fame. Ramirez had three other Top 5 finishes in MVP voting—in 2004, 2005, and 2008.

In 2004, his fourth season with the Red Sox, Ramirez again led the AL in slugging (.613) and OPS (1.009) and led the league in home runs (43). That year, Ramirez batted .365 in the postseason to help power the Red Sox to their first World Series victory since 1918.

Over the last 40 years, only Bonds, A-Rod, and Frank Thomas accumulated more offensive fWAR than Manny Ramirez. He deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.

Álex Rodriguez

Over the last 40 years, only two players hit more home runs than Álex Rodriguez (Barry Bonds & Albert Pujols), only one player batted more runs in than A-Rod (Pujols), only one player scored more runs than A-Rod (Bonds), and only four players had more hits than A-Rod (Derek Jeter, Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Adrian Beltré).

In his career, A-Rod hit 696 home runs, stole 329 bases, and put up a slash of .295/.380/.550.

A-Rod debuted with Mariners in 1994 and played 7 seasons in Seattle. In 1996, he placed second in the AL MVP voting, losing out by one first-place vote to Juan González.

A-Rod won his first AL MVP Award with the Rangers in 2003—the last of his three seasons in Texas. His last two AL MVP Awards came with the Yankees in 2005 and 2007.

He was selected to the AL All-Star Team 14 times and won 10 Silver Slugger Awards. A-Rod twice won a Gold Glove—in 2002 and 2003—while playing shortstop for the Rangers.

He’s a defining player of the 1990’s and 2000’s and one of the best to ever play the game. He belongs in the Hall of Fame.