I Went Looking For A Braves' Weakness And Maybe, Kinda Found One

The Atlanta Braves are far and away the best team in the majors this season.

The Braves lead the majors in hits (1,372), home runs (281), RBI (820), and runs scored (848). The team slash line is .275/.344/.501. Read that slash again; that’s the average of every hitter on the Braves this season! The San Francisco Giants—a team within shouting distance of a Wild Card berth—have only one hitter with a better slash than the Braves as a team (Wilmer Flores, .287/.353/.527).

Atlanta pitchers have allowed 609 runs. That’s not the best mark in the majors—that distinction goes to the Tampa Bay Rays (578)—but the difference between the Braves and the Rays is only 31 runs over 145 games. That’s why the Braves have the largest run differential in the majors (+239).

The rotation is very good, now that Max Fried is back from the forearm injury that kept him out of action for most of May and all of June and July. Since his return, Fried has allowed more than 3 runs in a game only once (in his second start back, August 9 against the Pirates) but of course, the Braves won the game anyway. Indeed, the Braves have won all but one of Fried’s starts since his return on August 4).

Even without Fried, Atlanta’s rotation held it’s own, led by strikeout king Spencer Strider, plus Bryce Elder, and Charlie Morton. For the season, the rotation ERA is 4.17, 12th-best in the league. That’s largely due to the fifth starter, which has been a weak link, but teams don’t need a fifth starter in the postseason. So no, that’s not the weakness I think might trip up the Braves in October.

Looking just at ERA, the bullpen is the third best in the majors at 3.56. Only the Yankees and Orioles have a lower bullpen ERA. But let’s peak under that hood.

The good: Braves relievers have the highest strikeout rate in the majors 26.6%. Pierce Johnson—who the Braves picked up at the trade deadline from the Colorado Rockies—leads the pack with a 38.6% strikeout rate in 18.1 innings with Atlanta. Bullpen workhorses A.J. Minter and Kirby Yates also have strikeout rates about 30%.

The bad: Kirby Yates has walked nearly 15% of the batters he’s faced. Fellow reliever AJ Smith-Shawver’s walk rate is 12.5%. Not optimal for a bullpen arm.

The ugly: Atlanta’s bullpen gives up 1.11 home run-per-9 innings. That’s not the worst mark in the league. The Texas Rangers’ awful, awful bullpen owns that distinction at 1.47 home runs-per-9. And among playoff-bound teams, the Astros’ and Twins’ bullpens give up slightly more home runs-per-9 than the Braves’ pen.

This is the Braves’ maybe, kinda, sorta weakness. It’s been on display this week as the Braves have battled the Phillies in what could be a postseason preview.

On Monday, the teams played a double header. In the first game, the Braves led 8-4 into the 7th inning. Dylan Lee was called in from the pen to pitch the bottom of the 7th. He promptly gave up a walk to walk to Kyle Schwarber and a home run to Trea Turner to bring the Phillies within 2. Then closer Raisael Iglesias, in the bottom of the 9th, gave up a 2-out single to Turner and a game-tying home run to Bryce Harper. The Braves won it in the 10th.

In the third games of the series, last night, the Braves led 6-2 into the 8th. In came Joe Jiménez from the bullpen and he promptly gave up home runs to Harper and Bryson Stott to bring the Phillies within 1. Then Turner hit another bomb in the 9th off Iglesias to tie the game. Again, the Braves won it in extras.

Is this a small sample size? Yes! It’s tiny! We’re talking 2 games. But here’s the thing. To win the World Series, the Braves will have to get through one or more of the best home-run hitting teams in the league—the Dodgers (226), Rays (209), Twins (205), Rangers (203), Astros (198), Phillies (195), or Mariners (194).

Will the bullpen’s propensity for giving up the long ball doom the Braves? I don’t know. You don’t know. But it’s something to watch as Atlanta steamrolls into the postseason looking for their second World Series in 3 years.