How The Baseball Season Will Change While I'm Out of the Country For Two Weeks

This is the last regularly scheduled hanging sliders newsletter until Friday, August 11. As I mentioned in last Friday’s post, I’ll be out of the country for two weeks, starting this Thursday, July 27.

I’ll be traveling in Poland with my husband and my 22-year-old son. The impetus for the trip is to visit the towns in southern Poland where three of my grandparents were born. My father’s parents were born in shtetl towns southeast of Krakow, in the area that was known before the 20th Century as Galicia. Now, those towns are 30 minutes apart by car, but my grandparents didn’t meet in Poland. They met in the Bronx in the mid-1920’s. Both became naturalized U.S. citizens.

My mother’s father was born in a town southwest of Krakow, in an area that was part of the Austria-Hungarian Empire before World War I. He emigrated to the U.S. when he was three months old. His parents didn’t see the point of telling him he was born outside the U.S. He found that out when he went to register to vote. He then went through the naturalization process as a young adult in Brooklyn.

Each of my grandparents were fortunate to leave Poland before Hitler and the Nazis invaded the country in 1939. But that wasn’t the case for everyone in their family. My father’s parents each had siblings who perished in the Holocaust. My mother’s father had relatives who escaped to Cuba and lived there until the U.S. eased entry restrictions following World War II.

My mother’s father loved baseball. He was a die-hard Brooklyn Dodgers fan and never forgave the team for leaving for Los Angeles in 1958. (My mother has finally stopped telling me that my grandfather is turning over in his grave because I root for the Giants). By the time I was born, he’d somewhat switched allegiance to the young Mets squad.

Whether by nature or nurture, baseball is in my blood. Which is why I’m so passionate about writing this newsletter and spreading baseball love.

A lot will happen in baseball while I’m walking through family and world history in Poland. Below I give my predictions for the trade deadline and what the standings will look like when I return to San Francisco on August 10.

My trade predictions

Some bold and some not so bold thoughts on what will go down before 3:00 pm PDT (6:00 pm EDT) on August 1.

The Angels will not trade Shohei Ohtani

Don’t look now, but the Los Angeles Angels are now just 3.5 games behind the last American League Wild Card spot. Somehow, the Angels have gone 7-7 since Mike Trout broke a hamate bone in his left hand on July 3. And that .500 record has been good enough to move up in the Wild Card standings, with the Yankees, Rangers, Rays, and Guardians playing at or below .500 in the last three-plus weeks.

The problem for the Angels is that the Astros, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles are winning at a faster clip than Los Angeles is. That means the Angels will need to be buyers at the deadline in order to keep up. Doing so will be near impossible, as the Angels have one of the worst farm systems in the league.

Still, Ohtani’s hit 36 home runs and could conceivably make a run at 62 homers on the season and tie the American League record Aaron Judge set just last season. Is it likely? No. But would you want to be the President of Baseball Operations that makes that trade and then watches Ohtani hit 62 home runs in another uniform?

The White Sox will trade starters Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Dylan Cease

Every team in postseason contention needs starting pitching. Even the Braves. Especially the Dodgers, Orioles, Rays, Giants, and Rangers.

The White Sox are a long way from contention and have one of the worst farm systems in MLB. Giolito will be a free agent at the end of this season. The Sox hold a $19 million/one-year option on Lynn for 2024. Cease is under team control until after the 2025 season. The White Sox should play hardball on all of these pitchers and restock their farm with high upside prospects.

The Dodgers will trade for Justin Verlander

Verlander hasn’t given up four or more runs since June 20. In 15 starts, he’s had four clunkers and 11 good to great outings. He has years of postseason experience and success. He would be an upgrade over much of the Dodgers’ starting rotation, save for Clayton Kershaw, who is still on the shelf with a left shoulder injury. The Dodgers can easily afford Verlander’s salary—the remainder of the $43 million he’s owed this season and the $43 million he’s owed next season. And LA has the prospects to trade to the Mets to nab Verlander (and keep him away from Giants, who are also interested in the veteran starters).

The Padres will trade Juan Soto

After a slow start at the plate, Soto’s been hitting the ball all over the yard and over the fence since early May. His .917 OPS is 7th-best in MLB, just behind the Braves’ Matt Olson and the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts.

Soto will be eligible for free agency after the 2024 season. The Padres are already committed to $145 million in salaries in 2025 and may not have the flexibility to keep Soto, especially after going all in this season to mediocre results.

The Reds and the Rays will both make a big splash

Both the Rays and the Reds have 40-man salary commitments this season under $115 million. Both teams are on the cusp of the postseason and have been drawing bigger and bigger crowds this season, giving them financial flexibility. Both teams have highly-rated farm systems.

Maybe this is more hope than fact, but the Reds and Rays have what it takes to land a big fish before the trade deadline and should absolutely do it.

My predictions on what the standings will look like on August 10

AL East

The Orioles will have a 4+ game lead over the Rays. The Red Sox will be in third place, after leap frogging the Blue Jays.

AL Central

The Twins will extend their lead to 5+ games over the Guardians.

AL West

Astros and Rangers will be tied for the division lead. The Rangers are really struggling right now but face the Padres, White Sox, Marlins and A’s over the next two weeks. That will keep them afloat in the short term.

AL Wild Card

The top 3 teams will be Rays, Astros/Rangers, and Red Sox.

NL East

The Braves are currently 11 games ahead of the Phillies. What happens over the next two weeks won’t change that dynamic.

NL Central

Brewers will hold a 3+ game lead in the division over the Reds

NL West

The Dodgers will grow their division lead to 5+ games over the D’backs. The Giants will be in third place.

NL Wild Card

The top 3 teams will be the Reds, Phillies, and Marlins.