How Are The Brewers Leading the National League Central?

Yesterday’s post was an effort to find one thing—anything—that could slow down the Braves in the postseason, given their overwhelming offensive firepower and very good pitching.

Today I have the opposite question about a potential Braves postseason opponent. How are the Brewers 81-64 (heading into Thursday’s game) and ahead of the Cubs by two games in the NL Central?

It’s a fair question.

The Brewers have scored 646 runs this season, ranking them 18th in MLB and 9th in the National League. Remember the Braves team slash line that I wrote about yesterday? As of today, the Braves as a team are batting .275/.343/.501. Only one player who’s been with Milwaukee all season has a batting average and on-base average higher than the Braves’ team slash, and his slugging isn’t particularly close.

It’s William Contreras, the team’s 25-year-old catcher who played his first three seasons with—you guessed it—the Braves. Contreras is hitting .284/.358/.450 in 124 games. Christian Yelich has had a very good bounce-back season, but his slash falls short of the Braves’ team average, especially when it comes to slugging: .274/.363/.435. And Yelich’s on-again, off-again back issues have kept him out of the Brewers lineup over the last week.

You can see why the Brewers picked up Josh Donaldson off the scrap heap last week. Donaldson has 3 hits in 9 at-bats, including 1 home run, plus 4 walks. Mark Canha, who came over from the Mets at the trade deadline, has played in 36 games and been quite productive at the plate, slashing .303/.394/.459. Canha currently nursing a sore wrist and has been out of the lineup since leaving Tuesday’s game.

Okay, you say, but what about the pitching?

On the season, the Brewers have allowed 598 runs—the third lowest total in the majors. Then why does FanGraphs rank Milwaukee pitching 12th in the majors, as measured by Wins Above Replacement? We’ll get that question in a minute.

Starter Corbin Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner, is the staff ace but has fallen off his Cy Young metrics the last two seasons. Brandon Woodruff has been limited by a shoulder injury to just 9 starts. Wade Miley—signed to a one-year deal in the offseason—has pitched surprisingly well, given the elbow and shoulder injuries that derailed most of his 2022 campaign with the Cubs.

The Brewers best starter has been Freddy Peralta, especially in the second half. Since the All-Star break, Peralta is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA. Over that same period, Peralta has struck out nearly 13 batters per 9 innings pitched, for a 38% strike out rate, while limiting hitters to a .158 batting average against—the best in the majors.

In Woodruff’s absence, Colin Rea, Julio Tehran, and Adrian Houser have combined to start 54 games for Milwaukee and those starts have dragged Milwaukee’s rotation to the middle of the pack.

Closer Devin Williams is having a great season out of the bullpen, striking out 37.3% of batters faced on his way to 33 saves. Lefty Hoby Milner has been excellent, with an ERA under 2.00 over 59 innings pitched. Right-hander Joel Payamps has nearly matched Milner. Payamps has posted a 2.39 ERA over 64 innings.

As a whole, the Brewers’ relievers get the job done with out a lot of drama. The bullpen has accumulated 7.93 Wins Probability Added. (Go here if you need a refresher on WPA). To put another way, the relievers have had only 58 meltdown appearances, compared to 150 shutdowns. (A shutdown is .06+ in Win Probability Added. A meltdown is -.06 WPA.) Both numbers are second-best in the majors.

How does all of this good to very good pitching add up to a staff that ranks only 12th in MLB by Wins Above Replacement?

FanGraphs calculates WAR using Field Independent Pitching. FIP measures a pitcher’s performance over the things he can control: giving up home runs, and walking, hitting, and striking out batters. This season, Milwaukee pitchers have given up 1.27 home runs per 9 innings, which ranks 21st out of 30 MLB teams in home run prevention. (For reference, the Rays are league best at 1.09 HR-per-9 and the Nationals are league worst at 1.55 HR-per-9.) So while Brewers’ pitchers ranked 8th overall in strikeout rate (23.8%) and 11th overall in walk rate (8.1%), the home runs push them down the WAR rankings.

What is WAR good for, though, when your team plays great defense?

The Brewers play great defense.

Overall, Milwaukee has accumulated 60 Defensive Runs Saved, second best in the majors. DRS is a stat created by John Dewan and measured by Dewan’s Sports Info Solutions. (If you want a deep dive on DRS, listen to my interview of Mark Simon of SIS). And while the second baseman Brice Turang may be the only Brewer to have a shot at a Gold Glove Award this season, there are few weak links among the team’s regular players. Christian Yelich is the only Brewer to have logged more than 1,000 innings in the field and have a negative DRS (-3).

The Brewers aren’t flashy. You may not see them on SportsCenter’s Top 10 plays. But their defense gives them a big edge. And it’s a big reason why the Brewers are headed back to the postseason in 2023.