Hitter, Texas Ranger

Happy Tuesday. I hope y’all had an enjoyable holiday weekend. With the holiday, today you are receiving the regular Monday’s newsletter. Then we’re back on track to a regular Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule.

The Texas Rangers don’t take a lot of walks, which is why I couldn’t title this newsletter “Walker, Texas Ranger.” But the Rangers do get a lot of hits and score a lot of runs. Let’s dive into the numbers.

After Monday’s action, the Rangers have the highest team batting average in the American League at .271, just edging out the Rays at .270. The Rangers have played 53 games so far, three fewer than the Rays. Yet the Rays have scored 335 runs to the Rangers 334, giving the Rangers higher runs-per-game average (6.3). Texas also has a larger run differential than Tampa Bay. The Rangers have outscored their opponents by 128 runs; the Rays have outscored theirs by 119.

For a team that’s scored the second-most runs in the majors, the Rangers, surprisingly, do not rely all that much on home runs. Texas has hit 70, fifth-most in the American League, and 31 fewer than the Rays. The Rangers do hit a lot of doubles—Texas hitters have slugged 105 two-baggers, second only to the Red Sox in the AL, who have hit 115.

The key to Rangers’ success so far this season is a lineup with very few holes. While Adolis Garcia is the only Rangers hitter in MLB’s Top 20 hitters by average exit velocity (among qualified batters), the team average exit velocity is 89.9 mph—third best in the AL. The same holds true for the percentage of hard-hit balls. Among qualified batters, only Garcia and Josh Jung are in the Top 20 for hard-hit ball percentage in MLB, but the team ranks third in the AL, with 41.9% of balls in play qualifying as hard-hit balls.

Rangers' shortstop Corey Seager, who missed five weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, would be at the top of both the exit velocity and hard-hit ball leaderboards if he’d had enough plate appearances to qualify.

Every regular position player on the Rangers, including Seager, has a weighted on-base average of over .330 and a weighted runs created plus over 100—save for left fielder Robbie Grossman. Left field, in fact, is deep void for the Rangers offensively, as Bubba Thompson and Josh Smith—who occasionally cover for Grossman in left field—are both batting under .230. To his credit, Smith does walk a lot, which pushes his on-base average to .364.

Just look how balanced the Rangers’ lineup is:

The only other team in the American League that comes close to that kind of production up and down the lineup is, of course, the Rays.

Once the Rangers get all those hitters on base, they cash in. At a very high rate. An historically high rate. As a team, the Rangers are batting. 333 with runners in scoring position. That’s the highest team batting average with runners in scoring position since 1930, when the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Senators hit .342 and .334 with runners in scoring position over the full season.

And the Rangers aren’t just getting bloop singles with runners on second and third. They are slugging .541 in those situations—second only to the 2020 Padres, who slugged .569 in that COVID-shortened season.

So have Rangers’ hitter just been “clutch”? I talked about “clutch” in last Wednesday’s newsletter:

The Rangers’ “clutch” rating on FanGraphs is 1.82, which is very good, but lower than Orioles, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Angels and White Sox. But remember, the Rangers have the largest run differential, so they likely have fewer medium and high leverage situations. In fact, Texas has played only 10 one-run games and 25 blowout games.

In other words, the Rangers generally score early, get the lead and cruise to victory. It sounds so simple, yet so few teams do it. We’ll see if the Rangers can keep this up over the full 2023 season.