Here Come The Cubs, Earlier Than Expected

On the Sunday before the All-Star break, the Chicago Cubs beat the New York Yankees 7-4 to bring their record to 42-47. At that moment, the Cubs sat 5 games below .500 and 7 games behind the Cincinnati Reds, who led the National League Central with a record of 50-41. The Milwaukee Brewers were sandwiched between, in second place at 49-42, one game back of the Reds.

Now the Cubs are 65-60, 4 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central crown. And they are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second and third Wild Card spots.

You can do the math; that’s a 23-13 record since the All-Star Break—a .639 winning percentage. Only the Dodgers and Mariners have better second-half records.

How did the Cubs turn things around?

Let’s take a look.

The Cubs underachieved in the first half

Chicago played 89 games before the All-Star break. The Cubs scored 410 runs and allowed only 384, leading to an expected record of 47-42—a 5 game swing from their actual first half record of 42-47.

Much of that run differential came from the Cubs excellent record in blowout games decided by 5 or more runs. In the first half, the Cubs went 19-12 in blowout games, outscoring their opponents in those games 245-199.

On the flip side, the Cubs performed poorly in one-run games in the first half, posting a 9-12 record.

According to FanGraphs, Chicago’s pitching staff had the second worst clutch score in the majors before the break, owing mostly to a very shaky bullpen. (If you want a refresher, I did a deep dive on “clutchness” earlier in the season.) Relievers Michael Fullmer, Javier Assad, Anthony Kay, and Brandon Hughes all had clutch scores in the first half below -0.50.

Cubs hitters, too, struggled in high leverage situations in the first half. Overall, the Cubs’ offense recorded a combined -3.96 clutch score before the break—the fourth worst in the majors. Patrick Wisdom, Dansby Swanson, and Seiya Suzuki, in particular, struggled at the plate in the first half with the game hanging in the balance.

Cody Bellinger was essentially keeping the Cubs’ offense afloat with a .298/.355/.491 slash in the first half. The Cubs signed Bellinger to a one-year deal in the offseason. It was a flyer of sorts—let’s see if a change of scenery can help Bellinger revive his career after three miserable seasons with the Dodgers in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Bellinger, of course, was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2017 and the NL MVP in 2019. So the tools were there. The Cubs took a gamble and it paid off big time.

The Cubs improved at the trade deadline

Less than a week before the deadline, the Cubs were 49-51, having won 4 in a row. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com called the Cubs a bubble team—potential buyers or sellers. Then the Cubs ripped off 4 more wins, to give them their longest winning streak of the season.

The Cubs became buyers.

The team made two fairly small moves, one of which has paid off big time. First, Chicago acquired infielder Jeimer Candelario from the Washington Nationals. Candelario is primarily a third baseman but has also played first in his career.

The Cubs needed help at both positions. They’d used Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, and Miles Mastrobuoni at third—all of whom were hitting below league average. The same was true at first, where Trey Mancini shared time with rookies Matt Mervis and Jared Young. Mervis and Young didn’t stick and were sent back to Triple-A. Mancini struggled at the plate and showed no power.

In 18 games with the Cubs, Candelario is batting .349/.423/.571 while splitting time between third and first. His defense is meh, but his bat has more than made up for it.

The Cubs also picked up right-handed reliever José Cuas from the Royals in an effort to stabilize their shaky bullpen. In 8 2/3 innings across 9 appearances, Cuas has given up only 1 run and 5 hits. He does struggle with command—he’s issued 10 walks already for Chicago.

The offense is in high gear

In the second half, the Cubs have had the third-most productive offense in the majors, as measured by FanGraphs Offensive WAR and wRC+. The team is batting .272/.345/.480 with 58 home runs. Only the Braves have hit more dingers since the break.

Bellinger has turned it up a notch. Candelario has been a revelation, as has journeyman Mike Tauchman, who the Cubs signed to a minor league deal in the spring. Second baseman (and Bay Area native) Nico Hoerner, too, has picked up the pace at the plate.

Cubs are winning the close ones

Chicago’s turned around its performance in one-run games in the second half, going 7-3 thanks to a better bullpen. Closer Adbert Alzolay has 11 saves since the break and relievers Mark Leiter Jr., Javier Assad and Julian Merryweather have been solid in the middle and late innings.

The Cubs have turned their season around without starter Marcus Stroman, who went on the injured list in early August with a hip injury but hasn’t returned after the Cubs discovered he also had a fracture of his rib cage cartilage. There is no timelines for his return.

All-Star Justin Steele, together with Kyle Hendricks and James Tallion are holding down the rotation. And with the offense firing on all cylinders, the Cubs might just roll into the postseason for the first time since 2020.