Friday Free For All #5

Hello and welcome to Free Friday.

If you’re a free subscriber, you missed only one newsletter this week because I published Wednesday’s newsletter on MLB and the LGBTQ+ community for everyone. Tuesday’s newsletter for paid subscribers detailed the Texas Rangers’ incredibly balanced offense this season.

If you haven’t yet read Wednesday’s newsletter, I encourage you to do so and to share it widely. Pride Month kicked off yesterday and MLB’s social media accounts are festooned with Pride colors but, as I wrote, MLB must do much more than market flag-inspired merchandise to live up to its stated social justice mission.

All-Star Backsliding

MLB released the 2023 All-Star ballot earlier this week and the balloting process is a little different than in prior years. You can read all about that here, where you will also find a link to the ballot. You can vote up to five times in a 24-hour period through June 22 in the first phase of voting.

The ballot release got me thinking about the All-Star rosters from last season and how many repeat All-Star players we’re likely to see this season. Voters don’t necessarily vote for the best players at each position, however “best” is statistically measured. Some players are popular, despite what they’re currently doing on the field and at the plate and vice versa. That’s why the All-Star managers have the opportunity to fill out their rosters with reserves.

Here’s my list of players who should not repeat as All-Stars. Take heed voters and managers (Dusty Baker, Astros and Rob Thomson, Phillies).

American League

Last season, the Blue Jays hit the ground running to start the season and went 14-8 in April. They continued to play above .500 through May and June, but barely so. Still, with their fast start, the Blue Jays were on the radar, garnering national (and international) media attention.

So it wasn’t terribly surprising to see Jays’ catcher Alejandro Kirk voted as the American League starter at that position. At last season’s All-Star break, Kirk was batting .315/.395/.487 with 11 home runs. His 155 wRC+ was far and away the highest for any AL catcher.

In the 2nd inning of the All-Star Game, Kirk paired with his Jays battery-mate Alek Manoah, who ultimately came in third in Cy Young voting. At the midway point last season, Manoah was 10-4 with a 2.28 ERA and a solid selection for the AL All-Star roster (although his rotation-mate Kevin Gausman had been more valuable through the first 3+ plus months of the season, according to fWAR).

This season has been a whole different story.

Manoah is 1-6 with a 5.46 ERA—the fifth highest among qualified AL starters. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is way up, and he’s given up nearly twice as many home runs per nine innings compared to 2022. Andrew Stoeten over at The Batflip covers the landscape on the problems with Manoah’s mechanics and how those issues are affecting the young pitcher’s mental state. You hate to see anyone have that kind of fall off in performance, and to suffer the indignities in the spotlight. Here’s hoping the Jays figure out how to fix Manoah soon.

Kirk, too, has struggled. He’s striking out more often than last season and has all but lost his power. Heading into Friday’s action, Kirk is batting .254/.353/.338 with 2 home runs. Look at those numbers. It’s not everyday that a player posts a higher on-base percentage than slugging percentage. I found only a handful of MLB players with 50+ at bats, aside from Kirk, who’ve posted an OBP higher than a slugging percentage so far this season.

National League

Like the Blue Jays, the Marlins started the 2022 on a tear. Unlike the Blue Jays, the Marlins then fell off a cliff, going 7-19 in May before righting the ship in June. None of that stopped voters from selecting Jazz Chisholm Jr. to be the starting second baseman for the NL All-Stars. Chisholm struggled with injuries in the first half—injuries that kept him from playing in the All-Star Game. Still, in 60 games through mid-July, Chisholm was the most productive second baseman in the NL, batting .254/.325/.535 with 14 home runs and 12 stolen bases.

Chisholm isn’t even playing second base this season, after the Marlins acquired Luis Arraez from the Twins last winter. Miami moved Chisholm to center field, which has been a bit of an adventure defensively. Chisholm injured a toe on a play in mid-May and has been on the injured list. Even so, he wasn’t putting up numbers close to his 2022 campaign. So far, he’s batting .229/.291/.403 with 7 home runs and 14 stolen bases.

Like the Blue Jays’ Manoah, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara has struggled to match his spectacular 2022. The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner is 2-5 in 11 starts with a 4.93 ERA. FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski had concerns about Alcantara heading into the season due to changes to the shift rules because Alcantara “had more groundballs hit into shifts than any pitcher in baseball in 2022.” That concern has been born out; Alcantara’s giving up a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .281, compared to .262 last season. But Alcantara’s bigger problem is that he’s striking out fewer batters and walking significantly more. When you put more runners on base, you’re likely to give up more runs. Alcantara has.

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Here come the Diamondbacks

If you’re reading this before Friday’s games kick off, please be on notice that the Arizona Diamondbacks are in first place in the National League West. Yes, they’re tied with the Dodgers, but still, the D’Backs are 34-23—the best mark in the NL. Only the Rays, Orioles, and Rangers have better overall records in MLB.

As measured by fWAR, the D’Backs have the most valuable starting pitcher in the majors—Zac Gallen—and the most valuable rookie—Corbin Carroll. Gallen is 7-2 with a 2.72 ERA. He’s struck out 28.4% of all batters faced and walked only 5.5%—tied for the fourth-lowest mark in the NL. Gallen doesn’t overwhelm batters with a high velocity fastball; he makes them look foolish with his knuckle curve. He’s nearly unhittable when pitching at home.

Carroll came into the season with the weight of high expectations; many analysts picked him to win the NL Rookie of the Year. He has lived up to the hype.

Carroll is batting .287/.372/.511 with 9 home runs and 16 stolen bases. If Carroll keeps up his stolen base pace, he could tie Mike Trout for most stolen bases by a rookie. Trout had 49 in 2012. If he keeps up the home run pace, he’ll end the season with 27 dingers, which would be fifth-most by a rookie. Ever.

Nail in the coffin of regional sports networks?

More than ten years ago, I wrote a lot of articles for FanGraphs on the economics underlying the contracts between MLB teams and the regional sports networks that agreed to broadcast team games. I cautioned that cord-cutting and declining viewership would undermine the multimillion dollar deals RSNs were then doling out to teams, even in mid-sized markets. You can read what I wrote back then here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here. (Wow, that’s even more than I remember writing about local TV deals).

Much of what concerned me came to pass, leading regional sports networks into a tailspin. In 2017, Disney acquired most of the assets of 21st Century Fox, including the Fox Sports RSNs, but regulators forced Disney to spin off the RSNs to avoid antitrust violations. Disney then sold the Fox Sports RSNs to Diamond Sports Group, a subsidiary of Sinclair Broadcasting. Diamond operates the RSNs via subsidiary Bally Sports. Earlier this year, Diamond/Bally filed for bankruptcy. The bankruptcy filing did not include Bally Sports San Diego, because that RSN is a joint venture between the Padres and Bally Sports.

On Tuesday, however, Bally announced that it could not make its next payment to the Padres owed under their contract. On Wednesday, MLB stepped in and started broadcasting Padres games. For the next week, Padres games are streaming for free on MLB.tv and are still available on cable networks in the San Diego area, for those who subscribe. MLB has guaranteed the Padres at least 80% of the money it expected to receive from Diamond/Bally’s. Ben Clemens dives into the financial possibilities at FanGraphs.

As ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reported late on Thursday, the bankruptcy judge denied Diamond/Bally’s motion to allow it to pay certain teams only 75% of monies owed due to changed economic circumstances. Diamond/Bally’s had already reduced payments to the Twins, Guardians, Diamondbacks, and Rangers and now will have to pay those teams the full amount owed under their contracts.

When all of this gets sorted out, we are likely to see a more fractured broadcast landscape for MLB games.

Improvements in pitch quality

Drew Haugen over at Down on the Farm has a detailed analysis tracking improvements in pitch quality—stuff, location and overall quality. I’m not particularly well-versed in these metrics, but there are lots of groovy charts and graphs, if you’re in to that sort of things.

That’s all for this week. Enjoy the weekend.