Friday Free For All #12

Hello and welcome to Free For All Friday.

This week, paid subscribers received two newsletters. On Monday, I published a podcast with Mark Simon, a baseball researcher and writer at Sports Info Solutions. Mark and I had a terrific conversation about defensive metrics. Mark explained the intricate process SIS uses to calculate Defensive Runs Saved. Super interesting.

On Wednesday, paid subscribers received my deep dive into how things went horribly wrong for the Mets this season.

Programming note: I will be out of the country from July 27 to August 11. I will put all paid subscriptions on hold during that two week period, as it will be difficult for me to write newsletters on a consistent basis while I’m traveling. With the trade deadline set for August 1, I will do my best to write up my analysis of the key trades. Those newsletters will be free to all subscribers.

Are the Rays in danger of missing the postseason?

At first glance, this seems like an absurd question. The Rays are the only team in the American League with 60 wins. They have the second-best run differential in the AL, after the Texas Rangers with 529 runs scored (third-best in MLB) against 385 runs allowed (lowest in MLB).

But things have gone seriously awry for the Rays over their last 30 games, in which they’ve posted a 12-18 record and fallen into second place in the AL East, one game behind the Baltimore Orioles. That’s a .400 winning percentage. If the Rays continue to play at that pace over the next two-plus months, they’ll end the season at 85-77.

If every other team in the American League played the rest of the season according to FanGraphs’ playoff projections—but the Rays finished at 85-77—Tampa Bay would be right on the cusp of falling into or out of the third Wild Card spot. Obviously, if the Rays go 85-77, that likely means more victories for their division rivals Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, who are all battling for a Wild Card spot, too.

I expect the Rays to be active before the trade deadline. And with a deep farm system ranked by most analysts in the Top 10, the Rays will be in a position of strength when looking for starting pitching and another solid bullpen arm, which they need.

But oh boy, would that be a story if the team that started the season 13-0 and had a 6.5 game lead on July 1 missed the postseason.

Did Mozeliak speak too soon?

At the All-Star Break, with the team at 38-52, St. Louis Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak said in no uncertain terms that the Cards would be active before the trade deadline. "We're not just going to give away players, we want to get some value in return, we want to get some value that will help us in 2024 [and beyond]," Mozeliak told reporters. The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported that Mozeliak’s focus will be to acquire quality major-league pitchers.

Before Friday afternoon’s loss to the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, the Cardinals had won 6 in row. They’re 8-2 in their last 10. St. Louis has jumped ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates and into fourth place in the National League Central with a record of 44-54. The Cards sit 9 games back from the last NL Wild Card.

Baseball history is full of teams making late summer runs and vaulting into the postseason from way back in the standings.

The 2007 Colorado Rockies were 8 games back and under .500 on July 1 and ended the season as the NL Wild Card team. The Rockies then swept the Phillies in the NLDS and the Diamondbacks in the NLCS, only to get swept by the Red Sox in the World Series.

The 1995 Seattle Mariners trailed the California Angels (the name at the time) by 13 games on August 2 and charged into the postseason on the last day of the season by beating the Angels 9-1 to win the AL West by one game.

On June 30, 2012, the Oakland A’s were 37-42 and 13 games behind the AL West-leading Texas Rangers. The A’s swept the Rangers the last 3 games of the season and won the division by one game.

The list goes on.

I do not think the Cardinals will make a run and get into the postseason. But it’s not beyond the realm of possibility, especially when you have two of the most productive hitters in the NL in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Just like it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the Rays will miss the postseason.

Has anyone season the Rally Squirrel lately?

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The most productive National League player you’re talking about

If you’re a Chicago Cubs fan, you know the answer. For everyone else, maybe not.

After this afternoon’s game, this player is hitting .317/.371/.542 with 13 home runs and 15 doubles.

But this player missed a month of action with a knee contusion, so he has fewer than 300 plate appearances. That’s why he doesn’t show up on leaderboards. But if you adjust leaderboards to account for all National League players with at least 250 plate appearances, he’s in the top 10 in OPS (on-base plus slugging) and wRC+ (weighted runs created plus).

The player is Cody Bellinger.

The one-time NL Rookie of the Year has turned his career around with the Cubs. After hitting .305/.406/.629 in 2019 and being named the NL MVP, Bellinger seemingly forgot how to hit. His last three seasons with the Dodgers were awful to watch, even for this Giants fan.

If you look at Statcast data, Bellinger’s resurgence doesn’t make a lot of sense. The average exit velocity of balls off his bat is at the lowest of his career at 87 mph, which ranks 123rd among MLB batters. And he rarely “barrels up” the ball—defined by Statcast as the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle.

But Bellinger has clearly figured something out and it’s working.

The heartbroken scoreboard operator at Coors Field

Two days ago, this tweet from Coors Field went viral, for obvious reasons.

I haven’t found any articles interviewing the scoreboard operator or trying to Becky’s side of the story.

But if you had to watch 81 Rockies home games this season, you’d start to lose it, too.

Farewell to Tony Bennett

The great American crooner Tony Bennett passed away this morning at 96. He is best known for reviving the “Great American Songbook” with his jazzy and soulful stylings. But he was also an ally of Dr. Martin Luther King and strongly supported the Civil Rights Movement. Bennett confronted horrific racism when he served in the U.S. Army in World War II and turned his disgust into action.

After every Giants victory at Pac Bell-SBC-AT&T-Oracle Park, the Giants play Bennett’s famous “I Left My Heart in San Francisco” over the PA system. I’ll have a little sadness in my heart the next time I’m at the ballpark for a Giants win.

Rest in Power, Tony Bennett