Free For All Friday #4

Hello and welcome to Free Friday.

This week, paid subscribers received my take on the best MLB players flying under the radar and my look at the players who’ve been the most clutch so far this season.

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Are the San Francisco Giants contenders?

Heading into Friday’s game against the Brewers at American Family Field, the Giants are 25-25, 5.5 games behind the division-leading Dodgers in the National League West and 4 games behind the second-place Diamondbacks. San Francisco is 8-2 in their last 10 games, making them the hottest team in the NL.

I doubt the Giants will challenge the Dodgers for the NL West title, but San Francisco is currently only .5 games behind the Mets and the Pirates for the last wild card slot. After a terrific start, the Pirates have taken a dive; Pittsburgh is 5-16 in their last 21 games. (You may recall that I wrote that the Pirates’ early success might not be sustainable). And the Mets? New York just can’t find any consistency, particularly with their starters.

In reality, the NL is a jumble of mediocrity right now, save for the Dodgers and the Braves—both with 31 wins—and the Diamondbacks, with 29 wins. The Nationals have the worst record in the NL at 21-29, but that puts Washington only 4.5 games out of the wild card. Last season, the Phillies were 21-29 after 50 games, fired their manager Joe Girardi, and went on to grab the last wild card spot, which they rode to the World Series.

We’d be foolish to write off the Phillies, Padres or Cardinals this season—all teams that were expected to contend and that are still very much in the thick of it despite losing records.

So what to make of the Giants? Three big improvements have fueled their success.

First, it looks like San Francisco has fixed its bullpen woes. Over the last 10 days, the Giants have lowest bullpen ERA in MLB at 0.94. And since the Giants throw a bullpen game once every five games, relievers have pitched 48 innings since May 15. Still, for the season, the bullpen ERA is 4.70, so you can just imagine how bad things were in March and April.

It appears the Giants have finally found the most effective way to use Sean Manaea. From Opening Day to April 30, Manaea sported a 10.80 ERA; since then his ERA is 1.35 and he’s striking out almost 18 batters per 9 innings. Taylor Rogers also figured something out—apparently after throwing his glove in the trash. Rogers put up a 7.00 ERA through April 30; since then, it’s at 1.23.

Second, the offense is working as intended. Michael Conforto is healthy and hitting like its 2019. Conforto’s hit 7 home runs in his last 14 games and put up a slash of .370/.414/.796 over the same period. LaMonte Wade Jr. leads MLB in on-base percentage at .430. Rookie Casey Schmitt—who made his MLB debut on May 9—is batting .339/.339/.516 with 2 home runs and playing fantastic defense at second, third and shortstop.

And third, starters Logan Webb and Alex Cobb have been lights out in May. As I wrote yesterday, Webb and Cobb are in the top 5 in NL pitcher Win Probability Added this month. Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood (coming off the injured list) have been less consistent but still keeping the Giants in games, for the most part.

The downside of the Giants recent success is the reality that the team is much better when Brandon Crawford is not in the lineup or on the field. Crawford’s slash is hard to look at: .172/.252/.332. But so is his defense, which is hard to swallow after watching him play stellar shortstop since his 2011 debut, for which he was awarded the Gold Glove four times. Crawford has 6 errors so far this season and his fielding percentage is at .940—the lowest of his career.

Crawford is the last remaining player from the World Series championships in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Fans adore him. And despite his play this season, he still gets loud applause at Oracle Park when he come to bat. I cannot imagine the Giants cutting him; he’s an absolute legend. But it’s difficult to justify his roster spot on a team trying to get back the postseason.

World Series preview?

The Dodgers face off against the Rays this weekend in a clash of the best teams in each league. I keep reading that the Dodgers’ rotation is in tatters. Dustin May is out for several months with an elbow injury after making his way back from Tommy John surgery. Julio Urius is on the 15-day IL. Yet, LA finds hot young arms wherever they look. Bobby Miller was the latest spot starter called up from Triple-A. The 24-year-old right-hander tossed 5 innings in his debut on May 23, giving up 4 hits and 1 run.

The Rays, too, have a rotation beset by injury. Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs—who had been pitching very well— are both on the 60-day IL. Springs had Tommy John surgery. Rasmussen Jalen Beeks and Josh Fleming have been pressed into service from the bullpen. Taj Bradley has been up and down from Triple-A.

Friday’s game will pit Noah Syndergard for the Dodgers against Jalen Beeks. Saturday will feature Clayton Kershaw, fresh off the bereavement list after his mom passed away, and Tyler Glasnow, fresh off the IL and making his 2023 season debut after 2021 Tommy John surgery and an oblique injury. Sunday we’ll see Gavin Stone versus Taj Bradley. Only Kershaw-Glasnow will give us the kind of marquee matchup we’d expect from these teams. That’s what injuries will do.

The shaky pitching is sure to be tested on both sides as the Dodgers and Rays have two of the most potent offenses in MLB. The Rays have hit 97 home runs so far—best in the majors. The Dodgers are third with 82. It’ll be Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Mookie Betts will lead the charge for the Dodgers; Yancy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, and Wander Franco will power the Rays.

Checking in on the American League East

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the dominance of the AL East and pondered whether we’d see the division set a record with all five teams ending the season above .500. That possibility is still very much in play. Current standings heading into Friday’s games:

The Oakland A’s may set a very different record

In the modern baseball era, which began in 1901, the Philadelphia A’s hold the record for the worst winning percentage over a season. In 1918, the Philadelphia A’s went 36-117, for a .235 winning percentage.

Currently, the 2023 Oakland A’s—the same franchise as the 1918 Philadelphia A’s—have a .192 winning percentage. One ninety two. The A’s only have 10 wins, against 42 losses.

All the blame rests on owner John Fisher, who tore the team down, snubbed Oakland’s effort to help the team build a new ballpark, and is now planning to move the A’s to Las Vegas, although the precise location is hard to pin down. What Fisher has done is unforgivable—he’s destroyed a fan base and embarrassed the league. As Ken Rosenthal wrote today at The Athletic, you have to ask why MLB’s other owners would approve the move to Las Vegas under these circumstances.

Have a nice Memorial Day weekend. Go watch some baseball.