Free For All Friday #22: Philles Beat Braves, Again

Hello and welcome to Free For All Friday.

This is going to be a fairly brief newsletter, as I’m getting on an airplane right after the Phillies-Braves game to fly back east for Parents Weekend at my daughter’s college. And I may not have time to write a Saturday newsletter either. I will send out a newsletter before Game 1 of the ALCS on Sunday with my X-Factors for that series and another one on Monday before Game 1 of the NLCS on Monday with my X-Factors for that matchup.

Phillies homer their way to 2nd-straight NLCS

It’s the top of the 9th in Game 4 of the Phillies-Braves series. Marcel Ozuna walked to leadoff. Then Sean Murphy hit a seeing eye grounder throught the right side to put runners on 1st and 3rd. Pitching change. Out goes Gregory Soto. In comes Matt Strahm. Kevin Pillar pops out to Trea Turner on a pitch tight in on his hands. One out. Eddie Rosario flies out to Brandon Marsh in left field. Ozuna holds at third. Up comes rookie Vaughn Grissom. I don’t even care who wins this game and my heart is beating so fast. Called third strike on Grissom.

Phillies win. Bedlam at Citizens Bank Park.

This was the best game of the postseason.

Tight. Tense. Exciting. Well-played. Unconventional (Phillies manager Rob Thomson used closer Craig Kimbrel in the 7th inning to shut down a Braves’ rally). Nauseating (depending on who you were rooting for). Thrilling. Record-setting (Nick Castellanos is the first player in MLB history in have back-to-back multi-homer games in the postseason).

The Phillies out-pitched and out-slugged the Braves. You might have expected the Phillies to out-pitch the Braves. They did have the best pitching staff in the National League this season, led by the 1-2 punch of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. But look at what Ranger Suarez did. He took the ball in Game 1 and Game 4 and shut down the best offense in the majors this season. And the bullpen was absolute money.

The Phillies hit 11 home runs in this series. The Braves hit 3. The Braves—the team that tied the record for most home runs in a season—hit just 3 dingers in 4 games.

Good pitching beats good hitting, especially in the postseason.

We also saw tremendous defense. Michael Harris II made another spectacular catch-turned-double-play in Game 4—diving and catching a darting liner just before it hit the grass. Phillies center fielder Johan Rojas made an incredible catch of his own to save the game for the Phillies in the 7th when the Braves had the bases loaded and trailed 3-1. Every baseball fan—not just Phillies fans—every baseball fan had their heart in their throat as the ball sailed toward the center field wall. Rojas reined it in and the Bank erupted in cheers.

Pitching matchups haven’t been announced yet but I bet we see Zac Gallen v. Zack Wheeler in Game 1 in Philadelphia on Monday, followed by Merrill Kelly v Aaron Nola in Game 2 on Tuesday. If I weren’t about to board a plane, I’d look to see if this will be the first Zac v. Zack postseason pitching matchup in MLB history. I’m also curious to know if we’ve ever had a Zack v. Cody pitching duel.

The postseason format isn’t broken

The handwringing continues. Some baseball folks are upset that none of the three 100+ win teams—Braves, Dodgers, and Orioles—made it into the League Championship Series. Heck, the Braves are the only team 100+win that won a postseason game. But what’s to be upset about?

The Dodgers didn’t deserve to win any postseason games. They didn’t pitch well and they couldn’t hit a lick. To me, it’s more damning that other National League teams didn’t exploit the Dodgers’ obvious weaknesses during the regular season the way the D’Backs did in the Division Series. Kudos to Arizona’s scouts and analysts for getting the job done.

The Orioles? Their expected win-loss record based on their run differential was 94-68. MLB postseason history is littered with 94-win teams that bow out early. The Orioles were stacked with young players with no postseason experience. They didn’t crumble under pressure, but they didn’t rise to the occasion, either. The Rangers were a better team top to bottom and it showed.

And then there’s the Braves, a team with a long, long history of winning its division only to falter in the postseason. Atlanta finished first in its division every year between 1991 and 2005—save for the strike-shortened season in 1994—and won the World Series one time. The Braves won 100+ games in 1993, 1997, and 1998 and lost in the NLCS. They won 100+ games in 2002 and 2003 and lost in the NLDS.

This has been the reality of the MLB postseason since the beginning of the Divisional Era in 1969. Yes, the Wild Card team was added. Then the Wild Card Game. Then the Wild Card Series. But that’s only made it more difficult for the 85-win team that sneaks into the playoffs, not the 100-win team that gets a few days rest and sets up its rotation to maximize the number of times its ace takes the ball.

The Braves lost because the Phillies outplayed them. Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos came up big when Ronald Acuña Jr, Ozzie Albies, and Matt Olson didn’t.

Try to enjoy yourself without baseball for two days. I know it’s hard. But try.