Free For All Friday #19

Hello and welcome to Free For All Friday.

We are down to the final stages of the regular season. Ten days left, counting today’s games. And we still don’t know which team will win the AL East or the AL West, or which teams will be Wild Cards in either league. We don’t know whether the Braves or the Dodgers will end the season with the best record in the NL. We don’t know whether the Orioles or Rays will end the season with the best record in the AL. We don’t know which of those teams will have the best overall record.

One hundred and fifty-three games in and still so much to be decided. Let’s get to it.

This week’s posts

A quick note on what subscribers received this week.

Paid subscribers received three newsletters this week. On Monday, I provided a recap of the weekend’s action and what changed in the standings (and, of course, it’s all different 4 days later). On Wednesday, I wrote about the players moved at the trade deadline who are having the biggest impact on the postseason races. And yesterday, I analyzed how the Rays have adjusted to playing without shortstop Wander Franco, who is on indefinite administrative leave while MLB and Dominican authorities investigate alleged relationship(s) with underage girl(s).

Free (and paid) subscribers received Tuesday’s newsletter on the September call ups who could have biggest effect on the postseason races.

Who’s up, who’s down

Last Friday, I wrote about the tiebreaker scenarios in the NL Wild Card race and how the Giants were in great position, as they held several tie breakers over the Diamondbacks, Marlins and Reds. Well, tiebreakers don’t matter a hoot if you’re not tied, and the Giants are most definitely not tied for anything having to do with the Wild Card race.

The Giants lost 3 out of 4 in Colorado last weekend, lost both games to the D’Backs in Arizona, and lost last night to the Dodgers. San Francisco is now 76-77, out of the Wild Card race and in danger of ending the season in 4th place because the Padres have quietly won 7 straight. FanGraphs has an article today on what it would take for the Padres to have a shot at the third Wild Card. Mike Petriello at MLB.com has his own take on it. Headline: it’s not impossible.

The Cubs are also in a swoon after a scorching August (18-9) had them in prime Wild Card position. September has been another story. Chicago is 3-10 in their last 13 games (and playing the Rockies right now—the traditional Friday afternoon game at Wrigley Field). Six of those losses were to the D’Backs, who now firmly hold second place in the Wild Card standings. The Cubs and Marlins are tied for the third spot at 79-74; the Reds are 1/2 game back at 79-75.

Chicago finishes the season with 3 at home against the Rockies, 3 at the Braves and 3 at the Brewers. That will not be easy, given their recent play. The Marlins have to go through the Brewers, the Mets and the Pirates. The Reds face the Pirates, the Guardians, and the Cardinals. If you’re into the idea of the Padres overtaking all of these teams, their schedule is: Cardinals, Giants, and White Sox—perhaps the easiest schedule.

I’m rooting for chaos.

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There will definitely be chaos in the AL West and the AL Wild Card.

According to FanGraphs, the Astros have a 90.6% chance to make the playoffs. The Blue Jays’ odds are at 76.7%, followed by the Rangers at 69.1% and the Mariners at 63.7%. Baseball Reference sees it differently. B-R gives the Astros an 86.4% of getting into the postseason, followed by the Blue Jays at 82.8%, the Rangers at 65.7% and the Mariners at 65.1%.

I’m a bit surprised to see the Blue Jays’ odds so high, because they finish the season with 6 against the Rays and 3 against the Yankees. The Astros face the Royals, the Mariners, and the D’Backs. The Mariners go against the Astros for 3 and then have 7 with the Rangers. The Rangers only non-Mariners games are against the Angels.

In other words, despite the difficult schedule, the Blue Jays control their destiny. Win and they’re in. The Rangers and Mariners will, essentially, have a 7-game series for the final Wild Card spot. Good job on that, MLB schedulers.

Chaos indeed.

Rays called up top prospect Junior Caminero

Apparently, the brain trust in Tampa/St. Petersburg was not convinced by my post yesterday that the Rays were doing just fine—maybe better—without Wander Franco. The Rays are bringing up one of the top prospects in MLB—direct from Double-A—for the final stretch: Junior Caminero. Adam Berry at MLB.com has all the details. It’s an great story about the Rays’ stellar scouting department and Caminero’s meteoric rise.

My favorite part is the video taken in the clubhouse of the Double-A Montgomery Biscuits when manager (and former major leaguer) Morgan Ensberg announced that Caminero was getting the call. The surprise. The joy. The towels almost falling off. Priceless.

The NL MVP race is as wild as the Wild Card race

Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuña Jr. are both having record-setting, spectacular seasons. Both hit leadoff and supercharge their team’s offense from the very first pitch of the game. With 1 more home run and 3 more stolen bases, Acuña will be the first player in MLB history to hit 40 home runs and steal 70 bases in a season. How can he not be the MVP? Well, Betts is a much better defender, and with all the injuries the Dodgers have dealt with this season, Betts has played all over the field: 400+ innings at second base; nearly 100 innings at shortstop, and 680+ innings in right field.

The other amazing thing about the Betts-Acuña MVP race is that each has a teammate that would—in most seasons—be in the discussion for league MVP: Freddie Freeman on the Dodgers and Matt Olson on the Braves. Look at this list from FanGraphs of the top 4 players in the NL this season ranked by fWAR.

Freeman leads the NL in doubles (56, which set a new Dodgers record). Olson leads the NL (and the majors) in home runs (53, which set a new Braves record). These guys are second fiddle on their teams!

It’s no wonder the Dodgers and Braves have the two best records in the NL.

Sean Doolittle announced his retirement

Relief pitcher, humanitarian, and all-around wonderful person Sean Doolittle announced on Twitter this morning that he is retiring from baseball. Even if you’ve sworn off Twitter, go read his announcement here. It’s worth it because it epitomizes Doolittle’s respect for everybody in the game, from minor league coaches to game-day ushers to the fans.

Doolittle’s most dominant season came in 2019, when he was a closer for the World Series ChampionWashington Nationals. He was an All-Star that season, and in 2014 when he closed for the A’s. He finished his career with a 3.20 ERA in 450+ innings pitched.

Wishing nothing but the best to Sean and his wonderful wife Eireann Dolan.

Go watch some baseball and enjoy the weekend.

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