Free For All Friday #11

Hello and welcome to Free For All Friday.

We did it. We made it past the part of the schedule with no regular baseball games. There will be at least one, but often many, MLB games every day between today and Sunday, October 1, the last day of the regular season. There is no possibility of a Game 163 this year, so Monday, October 2 will be the next day without baseball. The Wild Card series start on October 3.

As you likely recall from last season, MLB eliminated tie-breaker games in favor of various formulae for determining division winners and Wild Card teams. Here’s a refresher on the rules.

My guess is that these rules will come into play to decide at least one division race and the National League Wild Card teams. Putting aside the Braves—who are running away with the NL East with the best record in the majors—there are currently seven teams within 4 games of each other vying for 5 postseason spots: the NL Central, the NL West, and the 3 Wild Cards: Reds, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, and Phillies. And the Cubs, Mets, or Padres could still go on a big run to push their way into the conversation.

In the American League, there are 11 teams currently holding a postseason spot or within 5 games of one. All three division races are tight. The Rays lead the Orioles by only 2 games in the AL East. Same for the Rangers over the Astros in the AL West. In the Central, the Guardians hold a 1/2 game lead over the Twins. The AL Wild Card teams might all come out of the East; there will certainly be no AL Central team in a Wild Card series, as the Twins and Guardians are barely playing better than .500 ball.

What paid subscribers received this week

Even in a week without baseball, paid subscribers received two juicy newsletters this week.

On Monday, I wrote about which teams should try to trade for Shohei Ohtani, if the Angels make him available before the trade deadline. The conventional wisdom is that Angels won’t trade Ohtani in the hopes they can convince him to re-sign with the team this offseason. That ship has sailed. The Angels had 6 seasons to surround Ohtani and Mike Trout with a roster good enough to make the MLB postseason. They failed. Ohtani prioritizes winning and there is no evidence the Angels can do what needs to be done to get Ohtani there.

On Wednesday, I gave paid subscribers my list of Should’ve Been All-Stars™. Not really a list of snubs; I would just reward great defensive players who can also really hit over more one-dimensional players.

I reached nice subscriber milestones this week for both free and paid subscribers. The numbers are still small-ish compared to other, better-known baseball newsletters, but word is getting around. We’re growing slowly but steadily. Please continue to share hanging sliders with your baseball-loving friends and family. And thank you to everyone who’s helped out so far.

Second-half storylines

No doubt, the biggest question heading into the second half of the season is whether the Angels will trade Ohtani, to whom, and for what kind of return. Everything and everyone pales in comparison to Ohtani’s on-field prowess and his off-field star power. I am rooting hard for a trade—even if it means Ohtani ends up on a team battling the Giants for a postseason spot—because Ohtani deserves to be on a team committed to winning, surrounded by a roster that can get him to the playoffs.

Unless it’s the Yankees.

Other big storylines I’ll be following:

• Will the dynamic and exciting rookies on the Cincinnati Reds fold under the pressure of a division race? Or will Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, and Andrew Abbott propel the Reds to their first division title since 2012?

• Will Luiz Arráez bat .400 or better over the full season? I’m skeptical but rooting for him.

• Will either the Mets or the Padres make a run and make the postseason? Will the Yankees fall in or out? Those three teams have the most expensive 40-man rosters this season. All three could miss the postseason. It’s a small market owner’s wet dream.

• Did the Rays peak too early? Tampa Bay limped into the All-Star break, going 3-7 in the final 10 games of the first half, including 7 consecutive losses. Since June 11, they are 10-15. The Rays have two healthy starters—Zach Eflin and rookie Taj Bradley. Shane McClanahan, Tampa’s most effective starter, has been on the IL since July 1 with back tightness. Tyler Glasnow is still seeking his old form has he works back from Tommy John surgery. It’s Tampa, so they find a way to make it work in the regular season with openers and mix and matching bullpen arms. But will that work in the postseason?

• The Dodgers and Giants, similarly, have starting rotations being held together with a glue stick I found in my kid’s middle school backpack and some old rubber bands. Both teams will be looking to trade for starters before the deadline. But there’s a long line of teams that would like to upgrade their rotation and not a lot of teams in pure sell mode.

• One team in sell mode is the Cardinals. Is everyone available for the right price, including Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt?

• What effect will Bruce Bochy’s postseason magic wand have on the Rangers? Can Bochy’s hocus pocus propel a very good roster to Texas’ first World Series championship?

What are you looking forward to as play resumes tonight?

Thank you for reading hanging sliders. This post is public so feel free to share it.

Average per game attendance back to pre-pandemic levels

In this tweet, MLB touted data showing attendance around the league is up more than 8% over 2022 and that the median age of ticket buyers is 6 years younger than in 2019. The median age of ticket buyers getting younger is so, so important to the growth and stability of the game. Kudos to all the MLB and team marketing folks who’ve working on that.

MLB didn’t provide the underlying attendance numbers, but you know I’ve been keeping track. As you’ll see, average game attendance so far this season up over average game attendance over the full 2022 season. But . . . . bear in mind that attendance peaks in the summer when kids are out of school and two thirds of all MLB teams are still theoretically in contention for the postseason. Attendance will likely drop for a bunch of teams as we head into August and September. So we’ll see where things stand at the end of the season.

Still, it’s great to see average game attendance numbers—at least right now—near 2019 levels. For some teams, attendance is up significantly over their end-of-season numbers in 2019. I’ve noted those on the chart. My headline for that data: winning brings fans to the ballpark. Seems obvious, but whenever MLB bemoans low attendance numbers in the smaller markets, I just want to scream: Give the fans a reason to show up and they will.

Soak in all the baseball this weekend, friends. Enjoy. And stay cool if you live in the areas affected by the fossil-fuel-caused-climate-change-induced-record-breaking-heat.