Everyone Is Talking About The Pirates. Let's Dive In

When I started writing Friday’s newsletter about the topsy turvy National League Central, my plan was to examine the Cubs and the Pirates in depth and then pronounce that the Cubs were for real and the Pirates were an early-season splash that would fade over the season. Then the Diamondbacks designated Madison Bumgarner and the A’s announced plans to move to Las Vegas and I decided I needed to write about those two stories. So I ditched the beginnings of my Pirates’ analysis, focused only on the Cubs, and wrote up the Bumgarner and A’s sections of the newsletter.

Over the weekend, the Dodgers took three of four from the Cubs while the Pirates swept the Reds, have a seven game winning streak, and lead the NL Central by half a game over the Brewers with a record of 16-7.

That makes me look like I don’t know what I’m talking about. Or it says that we’re still very much in the small sample size universe where we need to be cautious about predicting what will happen over 162 games based on what’s already occurred in the first 20+ games.

So while I’m still skeptical that the Pirates will sustain this level of play for the rest of the season, it’s worth talking about what they are doing well right now.

Here’s the short answer. The Pirates are scoring most of their runs in the early innings and then handing a lead to a bullpen that has been the best in the majors so far.

Just enough offense

Here’s the long answer. The offense is good, not great, but it’s been more than enough in most games. The Pirates have hit 27 home runs and scored 111 runs. Both numbers are in the top five in the National League. Their 10.1 % walk rate and 21.3 % strikeout rate are also fifth best in the NL.

Pittsburgh’s outfielders are leading the offensive charge. Connor Joe sits atop the Pirates’ leaderboard with a .357/.455/.643 slash. Joe is performing so far beyond his career numbers that it’s difficult to imagine him sustaining this offensive output. His .439 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) also suggests he’s been more lucky than good early on. That is backed up by Statcast data that show Joe barrels up the ball in only 9.1% of plate appearances. A player barrels up a ball when he hits at the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle.

Two other outfielders are barreling up the ball more consistently: Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski. Reynolds leads the National League with a 14.9% barrels-per-plate appearance rate. Suwinski isn’t far behind at 13.3%. Among regular players, Reynolds’ .294 batting average is second best on the team. The same is true for Suwinski’s .638 slugging percentage.

Reynolds, Joe, and Suwinski typically hit at the top of the Pirates’ batting order, which may explain why Pittsburgh’s scored 19 first inning runs. Overall, the Pirates have scored the majority of their runs in the first three innings (51), followed by innings four through six (37), and innings six through nine (19).

Good starters, great bullpen

At 43, Rich Hill is the oldest player in MLB this season. He’s also the Pirates’ fifth starting pitcher. He’s twenty years older than Pittsburgh’s youngest starter, Roansy Contreras. Twenty-five year old Johan Oviedo has been the Bucs’ best starting pitcher so far. In 24 1/3 innings, he’s allowed only 20 hits, eight walks, and six earned runs, while striking out 25. He has a nasty slider.

Vince Velasquez and Mitch Keller round out the starting five. Other than Hill, none of these guys are household names. But collectively, they’re getting the job done. The rotation as a whole has a batting average against of only .238.

But it’s the bullpen that has been lights out. Closer David Bednar is doing other-worldly things on the mound. In 11 appearances, he’s walked one, struck out 14 and allowed only two runs. Robert Stephenson has stranded every runner on base. Colin Holderman and Duane Underwood Jr. have been nearly as good. None of these relievers has given up a home run.

Defense needs to improve

Pittsburgh’s doing all of this with some pretty mediocre defense. Save for Ke’Bryan Hayes at third base, the Pirates’ defense has been pretty meh and in some cases, worse than meh (we’re looking at you, Carlos Santana). According to FanGraphs, the Pirates’ defense Wins Above Replacement is -8.3. Only the Rockies, Reds, and Orioles have been worse, by that metric.

Strength of schedule

As I’ve written about the Rays, good team beat bad teams and don’t play down to their level. That said, the Pirates have had a pretty easy schedule so far: seven games against the last-place Reds, three against the last place Rockies, three against the Red Sox, three against the White Sox, three against the Astros, and four against the Cardinals. None of those teams had a winning record when they played the Pirates. Only the Astros and Red Sox do now, barely.

So let’s see what happens when the Pirates take on the Dodgers for three games this week at PNC Park. That may be the first indication of whether the Bucs can sustain their winning ways.