Checking In On Game Length, Pace And Attendance

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At the end of April, I explored the connection between the quicker pace of ballgames and attendance around the league. At that time—about a month into the season—pace of play was up and time of games was down, by a significant amount, as compared to the 2022 season. Those changes came via new rules this season imposing a pitch clock and bigger bases and limiting pitcher disengagement and defensive shifts.

Average attendance per game had ticked up a bit from 2022, but I thought it was too early to draw any conclusions about whether the more active and quicker games had played any role in the slight attendance increase.

We’re now about 40% through the 2023 season. Let’s see where things stand on game length, pace and attendance.

• In 2022, the average time of game was 3:03; so far in 2023, it has dropped to 2:37.

• In 2022, teams attempted to steal 0.68 bases per game; so far in 2023, teams are attempting 0.90 steals per game.

• In 2022, baserunners succeeded in stealing a base on 75.4% of attempts; so far in 2023, baserunners have succeeded on 79.7% of attempts.

• In 2022, the batting average on balls in play was .290; so far in 2023, it’s .296.

The trends we saw at the end of April have persisted through early June. The new rules have shaved 26 minutes, on average, off the time of a major league baseball game, making games nearly 9 percent shorter than in 2022. When you consider that there have been 71 extra-inning games so far, an average game time of just over 2.5 hours fairly remarkable. The pitch clock and disengagement rules are working very well.

Stolen base attempts are up 32.4% from 2022. And the teams wreaking the most havoc on the base paths find themselves at or near the top of their division. In the National League, the Pirates lead all teams with 70 stolen bases, followed by the upstart Reds with 65 and the Diamondbacks with 63. The Reds and D’Backs also rank high on FanGraphs total base running leaderboard, which captures stolen bases, taking extra bases on hits, and avoiding double plays.

(Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds steals a base against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 11, 2023. Photo from MLB.com)

In the American League, the Rays lead with 87 stolen bases—far and away the most in that league. The A’s are second with 65, followed by the Orioles and the Blue Jays with 53. If only the A’s had decent pitching . . . . Tampa Bay is—pardon the pun—running away with the overall base running lead in the AL.

Now let’s look at attendance numbers.

The overall trend is encouraging. Attendance is up more than 1,000 on average per game throughout the league. And the bulk of those games were played before schools let out for the summer.

Teams that have increased their attendance the most over 2022 are—not surprising—teams that are playing well this season, plus the 2022 World Series teams (Astros and Phillies) and the Padres (biggest offseason roster moves). It’s exciting to see the Rays, Pirates and Orioles attracting thousands more fans to their games. The Reds are likely benefitting from the debuts and excellent play of their young core: Elly De La Cruz; Matt McLain, and Andrew Abbott.

How are the Cardinals drawing in more fans? Are these folks who like to watch expensive train wrecks? St. Louis is 27-39 and in last place in the NL Central. They are playing better at home (13-18) than on the road (14-21), but not by much. Paul Goldschmidt is having a very good year (.287/.383/.486 with 10 home runs) but he’s significantly off his MVP-winning stats in 2022. After a slow start, Nolan Arenado’s OPS (on base plus slugging) is up to .815, which is good but also well off his 2022 numbers. And Arenado’s defense has a negative rating on FanGraphs (gasp!).

The Cardinals have been extraordinarily unlucky this season. With a -1 run differential, the Cardinals’ expected record is 33-33. They’re the opposite of the Marlins, who have a -20 run differential and a 37-29 record, compared to a 31-35 expected record).

It must be true what St. Louis Cardinals fans will tell you, even if you don’t ask: they are the best fans in baseball.

This brings us back to whether we can discern any cause and effect relationship between shorter games and quicker pace, on the one hand, and attendance increases, on the other.

Here’s what I see: rule changes——> more and more aggressive base running——> more wins for speedy teams aggressive on base paths——--> higher attendance. Winning is still the most direct way to draw fans to ballpark. Finding new ways to win ballgames then, indirectly, helps increase attendance. For me, the jury is still out on whether shorter and more exciting games—on their own—are putting more fans in seats.

What do you think?