Blue Jays Looking Up, Down, and Sideways

Y’all are probably tired of my writing about how ridiculously talented the American League East is. I’ve chronicled the rise of the Tampa Bay Rays, pondered if the Boston Red Sox can pull it together, laughed at the prospect of the New York Yankees ending the season above .500 but in last place, and questioned if the Baltimore Orioles’ early season success is real or a mirage.

What about the Toronto Blue Jays? Where do they fit in to the most stacked division in baseball?

Writing about the Jays is a challenge because they run hot, then cold, then hot again, then cold again. When I started writing this post, the Jays had just swept the Atlanta Braves in a three-game series and were looking like a team moving up the standings. Two days later, the Jays have lost back to back games to the Yankees on three massive Aaron Judge home runs. (Judge homered Tuesday night off reliever Erik Swanson while keeping his eyes straight ahead, unlike Monday night when Judge appeared to look sideways toward the Yankees’ dugout before smashing the baseball to the stratosphere).

This is how the season has played out for the Jays. Their longest winning streak is 6 games. Their longest losing streak is 5 games. They have 3 walk-off wins and 3 walk-off losses.

Even so, the playoff odds at FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus all give the Blue Jays about a 70% chance of making it to MLB’s postseason. The odds of the Blue Jays winning the AL East are low, given the Rays’ incredible start and the intra-division competition. With the playoff format put into place last season, though, a wild-card berth isn’t just a one-game crapshoot, but a three-game series. So there’s reason for optimism in Toronto.

But there is also cause for concern.

Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, Vlad Guerrero, Jr., and Kevin Kiermaier are powering Jays’ offense. These four players have collectively hit half of the Jays’ 44 home runs and 48 of the team’s 81 doubles. Bichette leads the AL in hits (57) and is tied with Chapman for the highest batting average (.322). Keirmaier’s production at the plate is a welcome surprise in Toronto; the Jays signed him in the offseason principally to upgrade their outfield defense.

The problem for the Jays’ offense is that the rest of the lineup isn’t doing much at all. George Springer and Alejandro Kirk aren‘t hitting a lick. Newcomers Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho have been underwhelming. (Sorry Jays fans; Belt’s performance was entirely predictable). Cavan Biggio and Danny Jansen are playing below replacement level.

In 42 games, the Jays have scored 199 runs, 8th most in the American League. Every other team in the AL East has scored more runs. That will need to improve for the Jays to stay competitive in the division.

The starting rotation is solid, except for the Alek Manoah, who’s been dreadful. Manoah’s struggles are a big surprise after his stellar performance in 2022 when he came in third in American League Cy Young voting. Toronto is 4-5 in Manoah’s starts, including losses in his three most recent turns through the rotation. The folks over at FanGraphs wrote about the core of Manoah’s issues this season: giving up too many walks and too much hard contact.

Kevin Gausman has been very good in 7 of his 9 starts, and awful in the other 2. Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt struggled out of the gate but have pitched well over their last 5 starts. Yusei Kikuchi has been a pleasant surprise; he’s cut down on his walk rate from last season, when he issued 5.19 base-on-balls per 9. The Jays are 7-1 in Kikuchi’s starts.

The Jays’ bullpen is a bright spot (despite Erik Swanson’s tough outing on Tuesday night against the Yankees). As a whole, Jays’ relievers have struck out 26.4% of batters faced and stranded 75.1% of runners on base, putting Toronto in the top third among American League teams in those categories.

Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson have been two of the best relievers in the AL. Closer Jordan Romano has two blown saves so far and his ERA is up over last season when he was an All-Star. But his underlying fundamentals (velocity, inducing soft contact) are strong and in line with 2022. Anthony Bass and Zach Pop are weak links and will need to improve or be replaced for the Jays to stay afloat in the best division in baseball.

The Jays face the Yankees for two more games this week, then host the Orioles for three, before traveling to take on the Rays for four at Tropicana Field. Then they travel to Minneapolis to face the Twins. This is a challenging part of the schedule for the Jays. They will have to pitch and hit better than they have so far to avoid last place in the division.