Ballgames Are Considerably Shorter Compared to 2022 But Has It Increased Attendance?

We’re a bit less than four weeks into the 2023 season. New rules that went into effect on Opening Day are changing how games are played and how long the games last. Indeed, the rules as a whole were designed to shorten games and make the games more exciting. MLB took these steps to attract new fans to the ballpark and broadcasts, whether on TV or a streaming service.

Growing MLB’s fan base is imperative. Attendance at MLB games (as measured by tickets sold) has been declining year over year since 2012, even when you take 2020 and 2021 out of the equation. (COVID-19 restrictions meant no fans at regular season games in 2020 and limited numbers of fans in many cities in 2021). Attendance figures in 2022 were down 5.7% from 2019. The last time MLB attendance increased year over year was from 2011 to 2012, and even then, the increase was only 1.97%. From 2012 to 2022, attendance dropped 14 percent.

How the new rules are affecting play

Our friends at Baseball-Reference are keeping track of the game elements the rules were designed to change: length of game (pitch clock), stolen base attempts (bigger bases and limits on pitchers stepping off the mound), and batting average on balls in play (restricting defensive shifts). After Monday’s games, here’s what the data show:

• In 2022, the average time of game was 3:03; so far in 2023, it has dropped to 2:36.

• In 2022, teams attempted to steal 0.68 bases per game; so far in 2023, teams are attempting 0.86 steals per game.

• In 2022, the batting average on balls in play was .290; so far in 2023, it’s .295.

Pace of play is up and time of games is down, by a significant amount. The pitch clock appears to be working as intended. Stolen base attempts are up, but not as much as was expected after big increases in spring training games. And the shift restrictions? So far, it doesn’t appear to have had much of an effect at all.

What’s happening with attendance

Before we get to attendance numbers through the games that were played on Tuesday, April 25, let’s start with some caveats.

Many factors contribute to attendance at baseball games: the number of available tickets; ticket prices; whether the team is winning; the weather; promotions; and the opposing team. On the promotion front, Evan Drellich of The Athletic detailed new pass-like strategies teams are using to attract younger fans to something more than single-game tickets and something less than season tickets.

(Photo of Oracle Park in San Francisco on Monday night, April 24, 2023 in the first inning of the game between the Giants and the Cardinals).

This is the first season for MLB’s balanced schedule in which every team will play every other team in both leagues and only see division rivals in four series, instead of six. How much interest is there in Cincinnati to see the Texas Rangers or in Cleveland to see the Colorado Rockies, in April?

Based on the attendance numbers so far, it appears a team’s offseason moves can have a substantial effect on attendance because, again, attendance is measured by tickets sold. The Padres, for example, sold out season ticket memberships after the team capped the memberships due to “unprecedented demand.”

Without more granular data from focus groups or fan surveys, we’re not in a position to know which of these factors motivate fans to attend specific games at specific ballparks. Nor can we assess whether shorter games is having an effect on overall attendance at this early stage of the season.

Nevertheless, we can look at the data to if any trends are emerging. I will revisit the attendance numbers every month to see if the early trends are holding, new trends are emerging, and whether we can draw any conclusions from the fact that the games are substantially shorter.

The table below shows the average attendance at each team’s ballpark on three different dates: the 2022 All-Star Break; the end of the 2022 regular season; games played from Opening Day through April 25, 2023.

The Dodgers continue to be attendance behemoths, which is a bit surprising this year given the team’s quiet off season and mediocre play so far. Yes, Dodger Stadium’s capacity is 56,000 so there are significantly more tickets available to games there than at, say, PNC Park in Pittsburgh, which can seat only 38,000. But there is no question that the Dodger brand is exceptionally strong in the second-most populous metro area in the U.S.

We can easily see the effect of the Padres selling out season tickets. The Blue Jays also look to have gotten a boost from their offseason moves—signing free agents Kevin Kiermaier and Chris Bassitt, and trading for Daulton Varsho. And the Phillies and Astros are reaping the rewards of playing in (and for the Astros, winning) the World Series last year.

The Rays’ blazing start out of the gate has pumped up their attendance numbers—the team is averaging 3,000-plus more tickets sold per game. But the Pirates early season success hasn’t moved the needle much at all.

For Major League Baseball as a whole, it’s encouraging to see average game attendance is 2023 up, even slightly, over 2022 numbers, especially because attendance tends to go up during the summer when kids are out of school.