Are The Marlins Good . . . Enough?

Before you roll your eyes at a baseball story about the Miami Marlins, remember two things:

The Marlins have won the World Series twice in the last 30 years—in 1997 and 2003. Both times, the Marlins got into the postseason as the Wild Card (back when there was only one wild card per league). The Padres, Rockies, Brewers, Rays, Rangers, and Mariners have never won the World Series.

South Florida is the epicenter of playoff success right now. The Miami Heat—the 8th seed in the NBA Eastern Conference—vanquished the number 1 and 2 seeds to get to the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets. The Florida Panthers also knocked off the number 1 seed on their way to the Stanley Cup Finals against the Las Vegas Golden Knights.

In other words, there’s some weird sports mojo going on in Florida right now and we’d be fools to ignore the Marlins.

The Marlins sit in second place in the National League East at 32-28, 3.5 games behind the Braves and two games ahead of the third place Mets. Right now, Miami holds the last NL Wild Card spot; again they have a two game lead on the Mets and a 2.5 game lead over the Giants for the last postseason berth. They’ve won 7 of their last 10 games, making them the hottest team in the NL over that span.

How have the Marlins pulled this off so far?

I’ve actually written about quite a bit about Marlins players already this season. In mid-April, I introduced you to Luis Arráez, who won the American League batting crown last season with the Minnesota Twins. In mid-April, Arráez had just hit the first cycle in Marlins history and his batting average sat at .500. I pondered whether Arráez could be the first player since Ted Williams to hit .400 over a full MLB season.

Arráez is now batting .392! That’s so close to .400. It’s also .61 higher than the next highest batting average in the majors. Heading into Monday’s action, both the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman and the Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. are batting .331.

Arráez is a singles machine. Of Arráez’s 80 total hits, 64 have been singles and 14 have been doubles. The home run and the triple Arráez hit when he hit for the cycle are the only home run and triple he’s hit all year.

I’ve also written about the most clutch players so far this season. Marlins’ outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler was at the top of that list in May. Right now, he’s second in the majors on FanGraphs’ Clutch leaderboard with a Clutch score of 1.42. Soler is also fifth in the NL in Wins Probability Added, thanks to his 17 home runs—third most in the NL.

On the other hand, starter Sandy Alcantara and centerfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. have had disappointing seasons after being All-Stars last season, as I wrote last Friday.

The Marlins’ magic sauce this season? They are 16-4 in one-run games. 16-4! That’s an .800 winning percentage in one-run contests. If the Marlins continue this pace in one-run games, they will obliterate the record for highest winning percentage in one-run games over a season—a record held by the 2016 Texas Rangers, who went 36-11 in one-run games for a .766 winning percentage.

This MLB.com article lists the ten best winning percentages in MLB history in one-run games. Only one team on the list ended the season with a negative run differential. The 1981 Orioles scored 429 runs and allowed 437 in that strike-shortened season. That -8 run differential gave the Orioles an expected win-loss record of 52-53. In fact, the O’s ended the 1981 season at 59-46.

The Marlins have scored 233 runs this season and allowed 270. That’s a -37 run differential. Their expected win-loss record is 26-34, a six game swing from their current 32-28 mark. That makes the Marlins the luckiest team in the majors so far this season.

Putting aside the COVID-shortened 2020 season and the strike-shortened 1981 season, only five teams in MLB history have made the playoffs after ending the season with a negative run differential:

• 2007 Diamondbacks (-20 run differential) — 90-72 record (won NL West)

• 2005 Padres (-42 run differential) — 82-80 record (won NL West)

• 1997 Giants (-9 run differential) — 90-72 record (won NL West)

• 1987 Twins (-20 run differential) — 85-77 record (won AL West)

• 1984 Royals (-13 run differential) — 84-78 record (won AL West)

The 1987 Twins won the World Series. None of the other teams made it to the Fall Classic.

FanGraphs is more bullish on the Marlins’ playoff odds, giving them a 40.3% chance of getting in to the postseason. Baseball-Reference is more skeptical. B-R’s odds for the Marlins to make the postseason are at 17.8%.

I love chaos, so I’m rooting for the Marlins for break the record for highest one-run game winning percentage and get into the postseason with a larger negative run differential than the 2005 Padres. Good luck, Marlins. You need it!