Angels' Fire Sale Could Shake Up Division and Wild Card Races

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ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke the news Tuesday afternoon that the Los Angeles Angels placed five players on the waiver wire: starter Lucas Giolito, relievers Matt Moore and Reynaldo López, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk. Each player will be a free agent at the end of the season, making the move look like a pure salary dump. If all five players are claimed on waivers and go to other teams, the Angels would save about $7 million in salary.

But there’s more to it than that.

Los Angeles Times baseball writer Alden Gonzalez suggested on Twitter that the Angels are looking to get under the luxury tax for the last month of the season. And Kiley McDaniel, the top prospects writer at ESPN, tweeted that getting under the luxury tax could affect the draft compensation the Angels would receive if (more like when) Shohei Ohtani signs with another team as a free agent this winter.

Let’s unpack how the Angels ended up in this position, what it means to place players on waivers, and how it might impact the last month of the regular season.

The Angels’ went all in at the trade deadline and it backfired, spectacularly

At the All-Star break, the Angels were 45-46 and going nowhere fast. Mike Trout had landed on the injured list on July 4 with a broken hamate bone in his right hand. The starting pitching—other than Shohei Ohtani—was in disarray. The offense—other than Shohei Ohtani—was not consistently productive. There was rampant speculation about whether the Angels would trade Ohtani by the August 1 trade deadline.

Then the Angels went 11-5 coming out of the break, which convinced owner Arte Moreno or GM Perry Minasian—or both— that the Angels were real contenders for the postseason and needed to go all in.

They pulled Ohtani off the trade block and acquired Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox for top prospects Edgar Quero (catcher) and Ky Bush (left-handed pitcher). Two days later, the Angels got Randal Grichuk and infielder CJ Cron from the Rockies for pitching prospects Jake Madden and Mason Albright.

Then the Angels lost 7 straight and watched their season collapse in on itself.

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How the waiver wire works

Prior to 2019, the waiver process was more complicated, in that teams that put players on waivers had to first try to work out a trade with the team that claimed the player. Starting with the 2019 season, waiver trades were eliminated.

Now, after the trade deadline, teams may place any player on its major league roster on the waiver wire to be claimed by any other MLB team. A player must be a team’s major league roster by August 31 in order to play with that team in the postseason.

With these five Angels players, there’s a good chance that multiple teams will make a waiver claim on each one.

Priority in waiver claims is given to teams with lower winning percentages over teams with higher winning percentages. And there is no longer any difference between the American League and National League.

Before play began on Tuesday, this was the list of MLB teams from worst to first, ranked by winning percentage.

How might this all play out?

Look at the above list of teams from worst to first. Every team from the Marlins to the Braves either leads its division, is currently in position for a Wild Card spot, or is within 6 games of a Wild card spot. Those are the teams most likely to make a claim on one or more of the five Angels players put on waivers.

In the National League, only the Central division race is relatively close, with the Cubs 5 games back of the Brewers. Those teams are facing off this week.

The National League Wild Card race is very close, with the Phillies, Cubs, and Diamondbacks currently in, and the Giants, Reds, and Marlins chasing them down. The Marlins are the furthest away at 2.5 games back of the third Wild Card.

In the American League, the East and West division races will be nail biters down the stretch. The Rays are chasing the Orioles, only 2.5 game back in the East. In the West, Texas, Houston, and Seattle are separated by 1 game. All of those teams, plus the Red Sox and Blue Jays, are vying Wild Card spot. The Twins will win the Central.

If these standings don’t change, the Marlins, Reds, Giants, and Red Sox will be have the best chance at grabbing at least one of the Angels players put on waivers, if they are interested. And teams can be interested for more than one reason: they either neither to fill a hole on their roster or they want to block a team higher than them in the standings from getting a particular player.

This happened under the old system in 2010 when the Giants claimed Cody Ross off waivers from the Marlins in order to block the Padres from getting Ross. At the time, the Giants trailed the Padres by 5.5 games in the NL West race. Ross turned out to be a key player in the Giants World Series Championship run that year.

Of course, the team awarded the waiver claim is then on the hook for the last month of the player’s salary. Among the teams still in contention, the Orioles, Rays, Reds and Marlins all had Opening Day payrolls under $100 million, raising a big question about whether any of those teams is willing to spend money to get another player for the final push. The Giants and Red Sox, on the other hand, have owners who have shown a willingness to spend.

Indeed, the Giants may be in the best possible position over the next two days with a combination of waiver claim priority and the resources to acquire new players. Should the Giants take a chance on Giolito, who’s been downright awful for the Angels in 6 starts with a 6.89 ERA? The Giants have been playing most of the season with only two, regular, dependable starters in Logan Webb and Alex Cobb. Prospect Kyle Harrison made his home debut last night and was spectacular, but is that enough to get the Giants over the hump, given their miserable August performance?

Both the Diamondbacks and Rays could use some bullpen help. Do one of those teams try to get either Matt Moore or Reynaldo López? Will the Brewers claim Randal Grichuk to get some more offensive firepower in the lineup?

Forty-eight hours until we know if any or all of these players are moving to new teams. I love this kind of intrigue.