An Ode to Clayton Kershaw, A Nemesis

As I watched the highlights of the Golden State Warriors Game 7 win over the Sacramento Kings on Sunday, and rewound and replayed the barrage of seemingly impossible shots made by Stephen Curry on his way to a record-breaking 50-point game, I thought about the joy that Curry has brought me since he debuted in the NBA in 2009. And then I thought about what it must be like to be a fan whose heart has been ripped out by Curry over the years; what it must be like to watch your team put three defenders on Curry only to watch him slice and dice his way to the basket; what it must be like to watch Curry, off balance, heave a desperation three pointer from way beyond the arc as the shot clock expires, only to watch the ball sail through the net.

Then I thought about Clayton Kershaw.

From his debut on May 25, 2008 to today, Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball by cumulative fWAR (FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement). Kershaw’s 74.5 fWAR beats Justin Verlander’s 71.5 and Max Scherzer’s 70.4 and from there it’s a big drop off to Zack Greinke at 59.5. The big three have each dealt with injuries and missed time over the last 16 seasons; Kershaw’s pitched 2,615 innings while Verlander and Scherzer have thrown 2,764 and 2701.1, respectively. And still, Kershaw has accumulated more fWAR.

Over his career, Kershaw has struck out 2,848 batters—fewer than Scherzer (3210) or Verlander (2884)—but allowed only 788 runs for a career 2.47 ERA, the lowest of any starter with more than 1,000 innings pitched since 2008. Batters have hit just .206 against Kershaw since 2008, also a league-wide low over the last 16 seasons. He’s particularly stingy with home runs, having given up 210, leading to an insanely low 0.79 HR/9 innings.

Kershaw’s pitch mix is legendary. He doesn’t overpower batters with his fastball. Early in his career, Kershaw was throwing his fastball, on average, in the 94 mph range. As he’s aged, that velocity has dropped to the 90-91 mph range. But his slider and curveball are nearly unhittable. Kershaw’s curveball is so legendary that the Pitching Ninja calls it a Cooperstown Curve. (You have to click through. We still can’t embed Tweets in Substack).

At age 35, Kershaw is pitching like he’s turned the clock back 10 years. Last Friday, he threw seven scoreless innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, giving up only two hits and striking out nine. Up until that game, the Cardinals had been the best-hitting team in the majors against left-handed pitchers. At the close of April, Kershaw’s ERA is 1.89, third best among National League starters.

My friend Jon Weissman went deep on Kershaw’s renaissance over on his Substack, Slayed by Voices. It’s worth a read.

I’m not going to compare Kershaw’s fWAR or bWAR to Curry’s Win Shares and make some kind of argument about who’s been better in their sport or more valuable. But when I looked at Curry’s career and Kershaw’s career, I saw some striking similarities:

• Curry and Kershaw were born five days apart in 1988. Curry is older.

• Kershaw debuted with the Dodgers in 2008; Curry debuted with the Warriors in 2009.

• Both have lost significant playing time to injuries.

• Each has been selected to nine All-Star Games. Each were arguably snubbed from an All-Star selection the year before they were first selected. Kershaw was not an All-Star in 2010, despite a 2.96 ERA in the first half, with nine wins. Curry was not an All-Star in the 2012-2013 season despite averaging 21 points per game before the break.

• Curry’s won two NBA MVP Awards. Kershaw’s won three NL Cy Young Awards and one NL MVP Award.

The big difference, of course, is Curry’s four NBA Championships to Kershaw’s one World Series. And some—including many Giants fans—consider Kershaw’s one World Series win to have an asterisk, as it came in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Kershaw’s postseason struggles on the mound are well-documented.

Still, in my view, Kershaw and Curry define the last fifteen years in their sport.

Kershaw has started more games (55) against the San Francisco Giants than any other team. In total, he’s pitched in 57 games against the Giants, with one relief appearance in 2008, his rookie season, and one in 2019. That may seem obvious, given that the teams are division rivals and under the MLB schedule in place before this season, those teams would play each other 18 or 19 times each season. But Kershaw hasn’t faced the San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, or Arizona Diamondbacks nearly as many times under the same schedule.

Kershaw’s peak dominance, from 2011-2017, nearly coincided with the Giants’ incredible run of World Series victories in 2010, 2012, and 2014, and their heartbreaking loss to the Chicago Cubs in the 2016 National League Division Series. Kershaw’s ERA against the Giants was at 2.00 or below in each of those seasons, save for 2015 when it was 2.11.

In 2016, Kershaw faced the Giants five times. The Dodgers won four of those five games. That season, the Dodgers won the National League West over the Giants by four games, sending the Giants to the Wild Card game. Who knows what would have happened had the Giants won two more of those games against Kershaw and tied the Dodgers for the division. It was an even year after all.

Clayton Kershaw has dominated the Giants much like he’s dominated the rest of Major League Baseball. And while it’s frustrating as a fan to watch him carve up your favorite team’s lineup, you also have to marvel at it. Because he’s a singular talent. Just like Steph Curry.