The American League Central Is . . . Good?

We’re just past the one-month mark of the 2024 season, so let’s take stock.

The most surprising division, so far

The American League Central is the only division in baseball with four teams above .500. This is surprising given pre-season expectations for the teams in the AL Central (Guardians, Royals, Tigers, Twins, and White Sox) and for teams in the divisions that experts thought would be the most competitive—chiefly, the American League East and the National League West.

The AL East is close—heading into Tuesday’s action, three teams are above .500 (Orioles, Yankees & Red Sox), one team is at .500 (Blue Jays), and one team is two games under .500 (Rays).

In the NL West, the Dodgers lead the pack at 19-12 and every other team is below .500. The DBacks and the Padres either look like world beaters or scuffle to score runs. The Giants are . . . the Giants, hovering around mediocrity.

But back to the AL Central where the Guardians, at 19-9, have the best record in the AL. If the season ended today, the Royals (17-13) and Tigers (16-12) would both snag a wild card spot. The Twins, at 15-13 have peeled off 8 consecutive wins to get back in the race.

Now, it’s true, that these teams have feasted on the lowly White Sox, who are 6-23. Somehow, the White Sox swept the Rays over the weekend, doubling their win total from 3 to 6, and with the Marlins in a similar tailspin, the South Siders no longer hold the worst record in the league.

But the Guardians and Royals, in particular, are doing more than just beating up on the White Sox.

The Guardians have a +46 run differential—tied with the Braves for the best in the majors. Cleveland’s offense is solid if not flashy. Led by center fielder Steven Kwan and first baseman Josh Naylor, the Guardians have scored 5.11 runs per game—5th highest in the league. The Royals have more flash, thanks to superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and the ever youthful Salvador Perez. Kansas City has scored 4.60 runs per game.

The key for both teams so far is lights-out pitching.

The Guardians lost their ace, Shane Bieber, to Tommy John surgery after only two starts. Starter Tanner Bibee has stepped up and is pitching quite well. He’s striking out more than 10 batters per 9 innings and has posted a 3.45 ERA in 6 starts. But for Cleveland, the bullpen is the key to success. Guardian relievers have the lowest ERA in the AL at 2.53. They have already won 9 games and saved 10. Closer Emmanuel Clase and relievers Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith have been rock solid.

For the Royals, the starters anchor an excellent pitching staff. Veteran Seth Lugo, rookie Alec Marsh, and Brady Singer all have ERAs under 3.00. Not even the Mariners’ exceptional rotation can boast those numbers.

If you believe FanGraphs’ rest-of-the-season projections, the AL Central’s hot start is just a mirage. FG projects the Twins to win the division at 85-77, with the Guardians one game back with a shot at a wild card spot. In other words, FG’s numbers say that Cleveland will go 65-69 the rest of the way, while the Royals will go 63-69. Hmmm. I can maybe buy into the Royals fizzing out but the Guardians look like they have something special going at the Jake.

The kids are alright

Baseball’s young players are lighting it up game in and game out.

Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, at 22 years old, is the first player since at least 1901 to hit 8 home runs and steal 17 bases in one calendar month—and there’s still one more game to play in April.

Orioles shortstop and the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson is also just 22. So far this season, he’s hit 10 home runs, giving him the most home runs before the end of April for a player aged 22 or younger. It’s an arbitrary “record” because the season doesn’t always start on the same day, but fun nonetheless.

Nationals rookie outfielder Jacob Young has recorded 25 stolen bases to start his career without getting caught once.

All of these stats are courtesy of the great Sarah Langs.

The kinda, sorta, near double no-no

In Monday night’s game between the Braves and Mariners at T-Mobile Park, Atlanta starter Max Fried and Seattle starter Bryce Miller each pitched six innings without allowing a hit.

Miller lost his no-hit bid in the top of the 7th when Ronald Acuña Jr. scorched an infield hit that clanked off the glove of Mariners shortstop Dylan Moore. The next batter, Ozzie Albies, hit a booming double to right field, scoring Acuña and giving the Braves the 1-0 lead.

Braves manager Brian Snitker pulled Fried after 6, but the reliever Pierce Johnson kept the no-hitter going through the 7th. The Mariners finally broke through in the 8th. Seattle walked it off on a two-run home run by Mitch Garver in the bottom of the 9th.

Thanks to the researchers on the Mariners broadcast, we know that since 1974, there have been six other double no-hit bids through at least six innings.

The only completed no-hitter from that list took place in the June 10, 1997 Marlins-Giants game at Candlestick Park. Florida’s Kevin Brown was nearly perfect; the only blemish came when he hit Marvin Benard with a pitch in the bottom of the 8th. The Marlins won the game 9-0 (a lot happened after the 6th!)

I did a little sleuthing and identified at least one game prior to 1974 where both starters took no-hit bids into the 7th inning. Turns out, it was Sandy Koufax’s perfect game on September 9, 1965. Cubs starter Bob Hendley held the Dodgers hitless through 7 2/3 before giving up a double to Lou Johnson. That was the only hit in the game. The Dodgers won 1-0; they had scored in the 5th inning on a walk, sacrifice bunt, stolen base, and throwing error.

In the long history of Major League Baseball, only one game featured two starters throwing no-hitters through 9 innings: May 2, 1917 with Reds’ Fred Toney facing off against the Cubs’ Hippo Vaughn. The Society for American Baseball Research has the details.

That’s all for this week. If you haven’t already, give me a follow on Bluesky @wendythurm.bsky.social. We’re trying to build up a nice baseball community over there,